186 FXUS65 KTFX 050534 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1133 PM MDT Thu Nov 4 2021 ...Aviation Section Updated... .SYNOPSIS... A Pacific disturbance begins to move into the region tonight, bringing periods of precipitation primarily over the mountains. Strong westerly winds move across the region Friday, favoring areas immediately downstream of the Rocky Mountain Front and Little Belt mountains. Expect more disturbances this weekend, bringing more precipitation to the mountains and gusty winds along the Plains. Temperatures will gradually cool closer to seasonable averages beginning this weekend into next week. && .UPDATE... A cold front passing eastward through the area has produced lightning and gusty winds in Southwest Montana this evening. Winds have gusted to 55 mph at the Bozeman Airport and to 57 mph at Bozeman Pass. I adjusted PoPs and probability of thunder in the near term to reflect these current trends. Any lightning and gusty winds associated with the front will pass out of the area by 11 PM. Otherwise, no changes were made to the near term. Winds overnight along the Rocky Mountain Front will strengthen and eventually spread over the plains after sunrise. Sustained winds and gusts are expected to remain at nuisance levels, with no highlights necessary. -AM && .AVIATION... 1133 PM MDT Thu Nov 4 2021 (05/06Z TAF period) VFR conditions will predominate, though with occasional periods of low VFR cigs and mtn obscurations for southwest Montana through the remainder of the overnight period. For KWYS, expect MVFR cigs at times through around midday Friday. Gusty winds are expected for much of the early morning through afternoon period Friday across the region, especially the north- central plains. Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 PM MDT Thu Nov 4 2021/ Tonight through Sunday...In the wake of the upper-level ridge with axis extended NE exiting the region, a west to east propagating cold frontal passage moves across the region, which will bring showers to portions of the region, specifically in areas south of I-90. Winds continue to strengthen along the Rocky Mountain Front and just east downslope tonight and progressing further into the Plains throughout Friday morning into the evening hours. Expect wind gusts along the Rocky Mountain Front to be in excess of 55 to 65 mph at times, with the Plains nearing 25 to 35 mph. However, with the passing disturbance, gusts can increase to 45 mph at times along the Plains. Areas around Judith Basin are still expected to see the stronger side of these winds within the Plains. Significant, or damaging winds are not expected, but nuisance level impacts, including locally difficult driving conditions and loose objects blowing around those exposed work areas are possible. A second shortwave is possible Friday night into Saturday; however, will likely only result in light precipitation in mountainous regions, especially the Rocky Mountain Front and Little Belt mountains. Stronger winds are likely on Sunday, but on marginal in comparison to those tonight into Friday. Temperatures will also gradually begin to cool down closer to seasonable averages starting early this weekend. Monday through next Thursday...The Pacific trough off the coastline of British Columbia is forecast to propagate eastward and broaden over much of the contiguous United States, leading to a more developed westerly flow aloft. Long range model/ensembles are suggesting that the aforementioned pattern will maintain mild and dry conditions with temperatures above normal early next week. Any disturbances from this pattern may bring precipitation to mountain regions, limiting anything into Plains due to the the gusty Westerly winds downslope. Light precipitation is possible, though, across the Plains for the Tuesday into Wednesday timeframe. General consensus is that impactful weather conditions are not anticipated for the period at this time. - Pierce/Coulston && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 40 57 32 56 / 30 0 0 0 CTB 36 49 27 48 / 10 0 0 0 HLN 38 60 35 57 / 40 0 0 10 BZN 35 58 35 58 / 80 0 0 10 WYS 30 43 30 45 / 50 0 0 20 DLN 32 55 34 54 / 50 0 0 10 HVR 40 57 30 54 / 20 0 0 0 LWT 38 57 33 56 / 30 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls