372 
FXUS64 KTSA 040507
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1207 AM CDT Thu Nov 4 2021

.DISCUSSION...

The 06Z TAF forecast discussion follows...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Challenging forecast again tonight with a mix of VFR cigs and 
clear skies. Areas that clear will have a much higher probability 
of fog given how high dewpoints are over the region (40s) and the 
low dewpoint depressions. Given latest satellite trends of slow 
clearing from north to south, went with NAMNest forecast of dense 
LIFR fog at the far NW AR sites. Also inserted MVFR fog at the NE 
OK sites given better potential for clearing, but this could go 
IFR. For now, left fog mention out of KFSM and KMLC down south 
with lowest chance of clearing.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1003 PM CDT Wed Nov 3 2021/ 

DISCUSSION... 
Cloud cover continues to sag southward this evening with the 
clearing line moving into far Northeast Oklahoma and far Northwest
Arkansas. Underneath the clouds...temps and dewpoints remained in
the 40s...while some clearing across Le Flore co in Southeast 
Oklahoma had aided in temps/dewpoints falling into the upper 30s.

Through the overnight hours...the clearing line should continue to
push through Northwest Arkansas and over far Eastern Oklahoma.
There remains some uncertainty with how much of the rest of
Eastern Oklahoma can clear as the GFS model soundings are more
aggressive with the clearing line moving through the CWA. This 
will need to be watched closely overnight as the more locations 
that can clear out...the greater chances of the Freeze warning 
needing to be expanded westward. For now have added minor 
adjustments to hourly temp/dewpoint trends based on latest trends 
and obs...and kept forecast lows and headlines as they are. 

Also overnight...as temps fall underneath clearing skies...light
winds and moisture from recent rains could allow for areas of fog
and or freezing fog to become possible. The greater potential of
this would be across Southeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas. Will
hold off on any additional headlines for tonight with the 
uncertainty of coverage of fog development. 

&&

$$

AVIATION.....30

Lacy