645 FXUS63 KMQT 031730 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 130 PM EDT Wed Nov 3 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 528 AM EDT WED NOV 3 2021 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a mid-level ridge over the Rockies extending n thru the NW Territories. Downstream, a trof dominates eastern N America. As a result, northerly flow prevails across Upper MI early this morning. For the 3rd morning in a row, LES continues off Lake Superior, and it remains disorganized with really no banding due to steep low-level lapse rates present across the Upper Great Lakes region. Over the last 3 days, the evening KINL soundings have shown steep low-level lapse rates up thru around 800mb. CWPL sounding has been similar, just a little less depth to the dry adiabatic low-level lapse rates. Overnight, LES over the w has been focused and most persistent into western Gogebic County/adjacent Ontonagon County due to land breeze wind component developing off nw WI. There has likely been several inches of snow in that area. To the e, land breeze wind component off Marquette County is supporting persistent/heavier snow into western Alger County with the snow just clipping eastern Marquette County, as far w as about 5 miles e of the city of Marquette. Across western Alger County, would not be surprised if overnight snow accumulations have locally been as much as 4-7 inches given the persistence of heavier snow showers. LES will be on the downward trend today and tonight as height rises and waa get underway. Low-level flow will also become anticyclonic with arrival of sfc high pres ridge. That said, LES will continue at good clip this morning in the areas currently being impacted. Lake induced equilibrium levels will still be around 12kft into the eastern fcst area and will be falling to around 8kft w. Expect another 2 to locally as much as 5 inches of snowfall this morning across Alger/northern Schoolcraft counties. Max snowfall will be in western Alger County. Over the w, expect another couple of inches of snow for Ontonagon/Gogebic counties. Ongoing advys will remain in place until current scheduled expiration at 15z. This aftn, backing winds will begin shifting snow showers to the ne. Continued backing winds to the wsw tonight will shift remaining -shsn mostly offshore. If any -shsn remain by late tonight, they will be confined to Keweenaw County and along the lake from Grand Marais eastward. Expect high temps today in the mid 30s to around 40F. With skies becoming clear to partly cloudy and a light wind tonight, temps will fall back into at least the upper teens F where snow cover exists. Certainly possible that some of those areas may fall into the 10-15F range. Temps will range up to around 30F locally along the Great Lakes. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 450 AM EDT WED NOV 3 2021 Expect lake-effect snow showers to end over the far east near Whitefish Point Thursday morning as cold air associated with troughing centered over Quebec moves east. In it's place, expect a decaying ridge from the Canadian Prairies to move over us Friday, bringing with it warmer conditions across Upper MI. Highs Friday look to be around 50F for most of the area. What may limit additional heating looks to be partly cloudy skies likely due to a shortwave approaching the area from the Northern Plains. This shortwave looks to impact us around Saturday, bringing some light rain showers across the area. There does seem to be a better chance for precip over the east, as it may be that the shortwave will be better organized by the time it arrives over eastern Upper MI. Once the shortwave leaves the area, expect strong WAA associated with ridging Sunday. Could see highs in the mid to upper 50s, which would be anomalously warm. Could see a similarly warm day Monday, as the 12z run of the ENS yesterday had 850mb temps in the 90th percentiles Monday and Monday night. However, the most recent deterministic GFS and Euro have significantly cooler air now coming over us starting Monday as a cold front comes through. The cold air behind the front would remain over the area until the end of the extended period. Therefore, while I did go with the NBM and the warm temps associated with it for the latter part of the extended forecast, I do have my doubts that these warmer conditions will be realized. Also, decided to leave rain chances out of the forecast for Monday, as the models are still rather light on the precip amounts expected. Probably will add in some rain chances Monday in subsequent forecasts, provided there isn't a major change in the model guidance. Once we get closer to the end of the extended period, we could see some rain chances across the area Monday night thru Wednesday (as model guidance differs on when precip will fall next week. Since the NBM followed the Euro pretty much, felt okay sticking with the NBM for now). Could see some snow mix-in during the overnight hours in the interior west Monday night/Tuesday morning and again Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. On Wednesday, the NBM has gone with a warm front moving across the area. However, models have now shifted to a Colorado Low forming late Tuesday night and lifting northeast towards Upper MI Wednesday. This shift has made the NBM out of step with the most recent model guidance. That being said, did keep the NBM in the forecast, as it is 7 days out and much can change between model forecast cycles for that far out. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 117 PM EDT WED NOV 3 2021 The LES machine will continue to wind down as the day progresses, although KCMX is anticipated to see another round of LES showers move through tonight before finally clearing out toward the end of this TAF period. At KSAW and KIWD, VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail, although can't be entirely ruled out for a brief period of MVFR due to ceilings and/or visbys if a rogue shower moves through. W to WNW winds at the start of this period will keep backing until it becomes southwesterly by tomorrow. By then, expect generally clear skies. && .MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 528 AM EDT WED NOV 3 2021 Expect winds across Lake Superior to be mostly under 20kt thru Fri morning as NW winds back around to the SW. During Fri aftn, S to SW winds will increase, reaching 20-30kt by evening, strongest east half of Lake Superior. Some gale force gusts to 35kt will then be possible across the e half Fri night. Winds will fall back to under 20kt on Sat and remain under 20kt on Sun. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rolfson LONG TERM...TAP AVIATION...lg MARINE...Rolfson