840 FXUS62 KFFC 311838 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 238 PM EDT Sun Oct 31 2021 .UPDATE... 18z Aviation update below. Baker && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1128 AM EDT Sun Oct 31 2021/ UPDATE... The stratus deck is showing more persistence and actually increasing in some extent likely due to daytime heating allowing to reach the LCL before mixing occurs under a very large inversion evident in the sounding this morning. Have increased cloud coverage accordingly and delayed some clearing into this afternoon. The solar sheltering should also delay some heating in parts of the north and west. Previous discussion follows... Baker PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 752 AM EDT Sun Oct 31 2021/ PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 354 AM EDT Sun Oct 31 2021/ SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/... Today a drier weather pattern than we have seen lately emerges as zonal flow aloft sets in and drier is advected into the upper and mid levels of the atmosphere. At the surface NWRLY winds will remain breezy thanks to a deep surface low pulling eastward off the coast of Maine. Tomorrow little change in the pattern is expected with zonal flow continuing aloft. However, at the surface winds will shift more northerly they are influenced by a surface high building across the Midwest. The northerly surface flow pattern along will westerly flow aloft will once again result in a dry day across the entire CWA. High temperatures today will run just slightly below normal and in the low 60s to 70s under mostly sunny skies. While tonight for the holiday lows will fall into the 40s as efficient nocturnal cooling occurs. Highs warm into the upper 60s and mid 70s tomorrow. 28 LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/... Long term picks up Tuesday morning under dry conditions with quasi- zonal mid level flow. Expecting conditions to change approaching Thursday as flow becomes more southerly as mid level shortwave deeps over the Southern Plains. Model guidance begins to differ on what to do with the shortwave with GFS keeping is open under broad SWly flow, with the Euro maintaining the deepening trend into strong trough before closing into a mid-level low over the Ohio River Valley. Given model disparity, went with model blend and no major changes to current thinking with Chance PoPs across far N GA overnight wednesday, increasing to Likely/Chance PoPs overspreading the CWA through Thursday into Friday, before the system quickly ejects eastward out of the CWA by Friday night. Temperatures look to moderate through the first half of the long term, with highs in the 60s to low 70s, before dropping into the low 50s on Thursday as frontal system passes the area. After the frontal system, area could get its first taste of 30 degree temps for the year, with CWA-wide low temps in the mid to upper 30s for Friday and Saturday night. Morgan && .AVIATION... 18Z Update... Lingering high end MVFR stratocu deck should scatter and lift slightly near low end VFR in next few hours, then expecting SKC for evening/overnight and into Monday. Winds NW 8-12 kts gusting 16-18 kts this afternoon, decreasing to 4-7 kts tonight, then switch to NE after about 14z Monday at 4-5 kts (could be sooner for KAHN). Monday afternoon winds could go light VRB but not certain enough to include any change in TAF for this issuance. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Medium on timing of stratocu deck clearing this afternoon. Low on Monday afternoon wind direction. High on all else. Baker && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 67 44 70 46 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 65 47 69 47 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 59 39 67 41 / 5 0 0 0 Cartersville 64 45 69 45 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 68 47 72 48 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 64 45 68 46 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 69 45 73 46 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 67 46 70 46 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 65 45 70 45 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 69 47 73 50 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...28/Baker LONG TERM....Morgan AVIATION...Baker