790 
FXUS63 KOAX 302253
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
553 PM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021

Today through Monday:
To those outside today, they're probably elated that temperatures
have warmed up more so than forecast. Unfortunately, those warm
temperatures will disappear as quickly as they came. A dry cold 
front is currently moving through the forecast area. Winds behind 
the front will be strong. After frontal passage, winds will be 
from the northwest at 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.
 
Currently, the air behind the front isn't all that "cold" as can 
be seen with observations at O'Neill. The front passed at 10 am 
and as of 2 pm, the temperature has increased 9 degrees. The cold 
air is coming though. High pressure will build behind the front 
and cold air advection will bring much cooler air in from Canada. 
High temperatures for tomorrow will 10 to 20 degrees cooler than 
today. That cool trend will continue for the work week with a 
possible warm up Friday and/or Saturday.

Monday morning there is a 15 to 35 percent chance for 
precipitation across southern Nebraska due to a weak upper level 
shortwave that will move through the Plains. Precipitation in this
case means both rain and snow. The total QPF is for 0.05 inches 
or less, so even if it were to snow, no accumulation is expected. 
Light rain is the most likely precipitation type, as the NBM shows
between an 80 to 90% conditional probability for rain. 

Tuesday through Friday:
After Monday, precipitation is not expected across the area.
Northwest flow in the upper level is expected to dominate the area
and temperatures will remain below normal. Tuesday morning, the
entire area is forecast to drop below freezing. If you haven't
experienced a freeze yet, you're likely to do so then. If it
doesn't occur Tuesday morning, then it's even more likely Wednesday
morning as low temperatures will range from 23 to 29 degrees.

High temperatures in this period are forecast to be in the mid to
upper 40s. Normal highs this time of year are near 55 degrees, so
temperatures will be about 10 degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 553 PM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021

Radar and surface observations indicate a cold front quickly
approaching KOMA with KLNK and KOFK already within the post- 
frontal air mass where north-northwest winds are gusting to 25-35
kt. We expect similar conditions to develop at KOMA within the 
next half hour. A band of MVFR ceilings (FL025-030) from southeast
SD into northeast NE is expected to continue southeast with KOFK 
and KOMA the most likely locations to be impacted by these clouds 
tonight. Winds should diminish some late tonight before 
strengthening again by midday on Sunday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fajman
AVIATION...Mead