397 FXUS62 KFFC 301126 AAA AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 726 AM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021 .UPDATE... For 12z TAFs/Aviation. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 451 AM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021/ SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/... Latest satellite imagery (WV+nighttime microphysics) showing broad upr low pinwheeling over the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians early this morning. Southern "low" of this upr trough moving into western NC with a west-northwest flow developing across north & central GA. widespread low clouds and patchy drizzle/light rain continue across the area with temperatures ranging from the 40s (northeast GA) to lower-mid 50s elsewhere. Northern wave as part of this broad upr trough is currently near the KY/IN/OH border. This feature will drop south today, crossing the southern Appalachians/north GA area this aftn, supporting one more round of scattered to numerous rain showers across the area (best chances for measurable rain across far north GA). Given the clouds and influence of upr low/cold pool aloft, do not expect temperatures to warm up much through the day. Entire trough pushes east of the area later tonight into Sunday. This will bring in drier air to the area. Temps will be about 5-10F degrees warmer on Sunday as dry/stable conditions prevail. DJN.83 LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/... Extended period starts off with sunny, near seasonal conditions as broad trough develops over the eastern CONUS to our north and zonal flow sets up over the South through early Tuesday. Expect temperatures in the 60s and 70s each afternoon, and in the 40s each morning. A pattern shift is expected midweek, and unfortunately this is where the models have the greatest differences. Latest ECMWF shows deepening trough pushing moisture axis into Georgia on Wednesday as aggressive shortwave rounds the base of the trough into Thursday. The differences between the ECWMF and GFS continue into Friday as the former shows shortwave breaks off from parent feature as a closed low. At this time, given low run-to-run consistency, have stuck close to NBM PoPs which parallel more of the drier, more optimistic GFS. Previous forecast package included a heftier drop in temperatures for Friday morning, but with the latest models shifting timing a bit, it looks more likely that we'll see limited warming through the day Friday and a drop into the 30s for the northern half of the state by early Saturday morning. These temperatures could trigger frost/freeze advisories and will need to be monitored through the week. 31 && .AVIATION... 12Z Update... Widespread IFR cigs between KCSG and KATL/KPDK will gradually become MVFR (or brief VFR) by midday. This will be short-lived however as an upper wave riding down the backside of broad upr trough expected to trigger sct-nmrs showers and a return to IFR ceilings aft 22z. WNW winds could gust at times 15-20kts given sfc gradient and some mixing expected. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... Medium to high all elements. DJN.83 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 60 49 68 45 / 20 5 0 0 Atlanta 58 49 66 47 / 30 5 0 0 Blairsville 53 45 60 39 / 60 30 5 0 Cartersville 57 48 64 45 / 50 10 0 0 Columbus 63 49 69 47 / 5 0 0 0 Gainesville 57 48 65 45 / 40 10 0 0 Macon 64 49 71 45 / 20 5 0 0 Rome 57 49 67 46 / 50 10 0 0 Peachtree City 59 48 67 45 / 20 5 0 0 Vidalia 64 51 71 47 / 5 5 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJN.83 LONG TERM....31 AVIATION...DJN.83