863 FXUS62 KTAE 291737 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL Issued by National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 137 PM EDT Fri Oct 29 2021 .AVIATION... [Through 18Z Saturday] Conditions should remain within VFR thresholds during the day today, though wind gusts in excess of 20 knots are possible over the next several hours. Additionally, scattered showers generally concentrated offshore may impact TLH and VLD over the next few hours. This evening, winds diminish to under 10 kts with some MVFR cigs possible at ABY/DHN/VLD. && .PREV DISCUSSION [1052 AM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... Main concern today is gusty wind potential. Feel that most of the guidance is too low on winds gusts over inland areas for a couple of reasons. First, raw gust output does not seem to be capturing peak gust potential when looking at favorable boundary layer mixing on the actual forecast soundings after sunrise. Second, looking at actual observations, MOB VWP appears to be sampling a stronger low level jet than any of the guidance has currently depicted in that area as of 06z with 3000 ft winds of 50 knots. Thus, as this potentially stronger than modeled low level jet translates eastward later this morning as daytime heating commences, feel as though model gust forecasts could be a little low. Taking these factors into account, we're forecasting peak gusts near 40 mph for most of the forecast area today, so we'll go ahead and issue a wind advisory for today. Winds will diminish later this afternoon. Scattered showers also remain possible near the coast today. Highs will generally range from the lower 60s to lower 70s across the area with overnight lows ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s. .SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday]... The large upper trough will exit east of the area with dry conditions expected. Highs will generally be in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s. Sunday will be warmer than Saturday. .LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]... Dry conditions are expected for most of the week with mainly zonal flow. By late in the week, another upper trough could approach the area with a slight chance of showers using the NBM guidance. Near average temperatures are expected for this time of year with highs generally in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. .MARINE... Fast moving showers have been streaming across our waters this morning from west to east, so rain chances are maintained through today, but no thunder is forecast. Meanwhile, persistent observations at the Tyndall AFB C-Tower and offshore buoy sites of sustained winds in excess of 25 kts with frequent gale-force gusts are justifying the Gale Warning in place through this evening. Wave heights of 13 ft are also being observed. Dangerous boating conditions do not improve until the latter part of the weekend. See previous synopsis below: Gale conditions are expected to continue through today with winds diminishing this evening. However, it may take through much of the day Saturday before seas fall below the advisory criteria of 7 feet. Much calmer conditions are expected for next week. .FIRE WEATHER... Windy conditions will prevail today with winds diminishing tonight. Relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical levels for the next several days. .HYDROLOGY... The coastal flood advisory remains in effect. SUWF1 in Dixie county has reached minor flood stage and is expected to peak in the middle of minor flood stage this morning. Elsewhere, minor coastal flooding is also possible this morning for the Wakulla, Jefferson, and Taylor county coasts. Additional minor flooding could linger through one more high tide cycle this evening for the Taylor and Dixie county coasts. Otherwise, rivers will rise over the next few days with the widespread rainfall we received, but no rivers are currently expected to reach flood stage from the rain. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 50 70 52 73 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 54 69 54 73 55 / 10 0 0 0 0 Dothan 50 65 50 71 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 52 65 51 71 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 49 68 50 71 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 52 71 53 74 52 / 30 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 53 69 55 72 56 / 30 10 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-South Walton. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for Coastal Dixie- Coastal Taylor. Wind Advisory until 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ this afternoon for Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty- Madison-North Walton-Washington. High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Saturday for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...Wind Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for Baker-Ben Hill- Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty- Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell- Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth. AL...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for Coffee-Dale- Geneva-Henry-Houston. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Saturday for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM. Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...Cady MARINE...IG3 FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...DVD