882 FXUS64 KHUN 291633 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1133 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 .UPDATE... For 18Z TAFS. && .NEAR TERM...(Rest of Today) Issued at 831 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 An upper low was centered over the HUN CWA this morning and can be observed via radar and satellite imagery. Bands of -RA and DZ continue to affect most of the area this morning with periodic lowering of visibility below 2-3SM. A larger band has shifted northeast into middle and eastern TN. It will be difficult to time breaks in the precipitation today as additional bands on the west side of the low rotate south and southeast into the area. Thus, have not adjusted PoPs at this point. Expect temperatures to hold in the upper 40s to lower 50s until any breaks in the rainfall allow for only limited warming. In fact, atop the highest elevations of Lookout Mtn, temperatures may stay just below 50 all day. .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 The stacked system will weaken some overnight and will make better progress to the northeast. Models indicate a few shortwave troughs rotating around the western periphery of the closed low overnight. Additionally, model soundings indicate a similar profile with moisture extending up to around 400 mb or so. The best chance for rain overnight, appears to be in the predawn hours. Again, expect precipitation will be rather light and rainfall amounts overnight should remain under a quarter of an inch. Overnight lows will range form the mid 40s to the low 50s. Upper level heights will continue to climb on Saturday as the center of the low moves into the Mid-Atlantic. Model soundings indicate drying from the top of the atmosphere downward. There could be a few lingering showers into the afternoon, especially over northeastern Alabama and southern Middle Tennessee. These locations in the southern Cumberland Plateau will have an upslope component to the low-level wind field that could keep chances for light showers going throughout the day on Saturday. Elsewhere, model soundings indicate that cloud cover may linger throughout the day with low-level moisture trapped below a rather stout subsidence inversion. Expect this cloud cover will continue into the overnight hours Saturday night into Sunday morning but expect dry conditions. Overnight lows will range from the mid to upper 40s. Cloud cover will continue throughout the morning hours on Sunday. This low-level moisture should begin to mix out late in the morning into the early afternoon from west to east with sunny skies expected by mid afternoon. Upper level heights will continue to increase behind the departing low with high temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 60s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 A dry cold front is forecast to move across the forecast area early next week. This will bring in a reinforcing shot of cooler air. Highs on Monday will be in the mid to upper 60s but lows Monday night into Tuesday morning will drop down into the low to mid 40s. Models indicate that this front stalls just to the south of the forecast area. The ECMWF and GFS are in pretty decent agreement up through this point and really begin to diverge. The ECMWF indicates a rather deep trough and is further to the west with this feature. The GFS is not as near as deep and is further to the east with the trough. The ECMWF solution indicates a real surge of cold air southward into the Tennessee Valley late next week while the GFS keeps this air much further to the north. The latest ECMWF seems a bit warmer than the previous 12z run. Regardless, precipitation is forecast to develop along this stalled boundary late Wednesday into Thursday. For now, leaned towards the colder solution with highs on Thursday in the low to mid 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1133 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 As low pressure slowly moves east from southern middle TN and northeast AL, low clouds and periodic -SHRA or -DZ is expected. Conditions will remain MVFR with ceilings at or below 020agl, with possible IFR this afternoon. After 01Z, expect ceilings to drop persistently below 010agl with IFR conditions. Westerly flow will increase by 15Z/30 with gusts over 15kt, but ceilings remaining below 010agl through 18Z. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...17 SHORT TERM...MA LONG TERM...MA AVIATION...17 For more information please visit our website at weather.gov/huntsville.