315 FXUS64 KAMA 290825 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 325 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021 .SHORT TERM...Today through tomorrow night... Overview: We finally get a break from the windy conditions we've experienced the last several days. Today the wind speeds will be relatively light compared to earlier this week (10-20mph), and we will have plenty of sunshine today leading to highs around 70 degrees for most of the Panhandles. Tomorrow will likely be the nicest day in the entire forecast with highs reaching the upper 70s to low 80s with lots of sunshine. Winds wont be bad either around 5-15 mph. Get out and enjoy Saturday because it might be the nicest day through at least early November. Further Details: H5 cutoff low will meander over the southern Gulf States through today, and this will keep us in a mostly northerly flow pattern through the column. Forecast soundings are rather dry, so we should see lots of sunshine today. Tonight that H5 low finally starts shifting east, and heights will slowly increase aloft allowing for much calmer winds overnight. We may have some frost development tomorrow when winds go light and variable and temperatures get down to the low to mid 30s. We then go zonal aloft through tomorrow night. The zonal cross barrier flow will induce lee cyclogenesis tomorrow with a surface trough/low developing over the Panhandles. A cold front will then sweep through as the low shifts south. The wind shift will likely occur tomorrow afternoon as the front enters the Oklahoma Panhandles. There could be some tricky temperature forecast going on depending on the timing of the front, but for now it does look like Saturday will reach its full potential of daytime heating. Something to watch if the timing of the front changes. As it stands now, we wont see highs on Saturday again through at least next week as a surge of cold air is anticipated by the middle of next week. Probably a good day to get outside and enjoy it before we get our first true arctic airmass. Guerrero && .LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday Night... Long term forecast begins Sunday with zonal flow aloft over the Panhandles and, at the surface, a cold front, forced southward by a northern stream wave, pushing through the CWA. Decent surface pressure gradient seen with this feature suggests a bit of a breeze may occur, so have increased winds above blended values, similar to the previous forecast. In any case, progged moisture fields are far too dry for any mention of precip with this frontal passage. Surface high developing in the wake of the aforementioned northern stream wave should lead to easterly winds in the forecast area for Monday. These upslope winds will help to keep the cooler airmass in place and begin to trend toward saturation in the lower levels. As this occurs, a few weak disturbances in the zonal flow aloft will translate eastward over KS. Have thus retained the low end mentions of showers for the far northern Panhandles Monday. Primary period of potential impact, intrigue, and uncertainty arrives Tuesday through Thursday. Increasing cloudiness is possible on Tuesday as upslope winds continue and progged 850mb fields saturate. Tuesday night into Wednesday, secondary surge of colder air arrives from the north courtesy of a second northern stream wave. Widespread cloudiness should result and continue through at least Wednesday, with perhaps some clearing Thursday. Given likely wind orientation, sky cover, and the seasonal transition potentially leading to NBM errors via it's localized bias correction scheme, have adjusted highs downward compared to NBM for Tuesday through Thursday using a blend of other consensus blends. Even this conservative approach knocks 3 to 7 degrees off the NBM highs for Wednesday, which are on the high side of the guidance distribution. Uncertainty focuses on precipitation potential as a relatively weak southern stream wave translates eastward over the forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Operational GFS/EC/CMC all now bring this feature across with at least a little positive tilt, albeit with varying slopes. This usually spells trouble with regards to obtaining deeper moisture and progged thermodynamic profiles in this scenario are no different. Thus, current confidence in realizing some of the admittedly robust modeled QPF values is low. Have thus continued to stick with the modest NBM PoPs during this time period. As for precipitation type, while GFS remains warm enough for a straight rain event, below 0C temperatures are seen at 850mb on the EC/CMC. Thus, cannot rule out some snow at some point Tuesday night into Thursday. That being said, at this time DGZ saturation is poorly timed with the arrival of the wave, with the EC/CMC only displaying widespread saturation in this layer after the passage of the wave, rendering the most likely period for snow Wednesday night in an upslope low level flow regime as a surface high builds to our east in the wake of the upper wave. Thus, current thinking is that impactful snow is unlikely but, with several days to go yet, this remains a period to watch. Ferguson && .AVIATION...06Z TAFs... VFR conditions will prevail throughout the valid TAF period. There will be low level wind shear for KAMA this morning as a 50-60 knot jet around 1500 ft AGL is in place. Otherwise, there will be plenty of sunshine later today and relatively light winds compared to the last several days. Guerrero && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 70 41 78 41 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 67 36 75 38 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 Boise City OK 69 35 75 33 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 72 40 79 42 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 72 39 80 41 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 70 40 78 40 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 69 41 78 44 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 70 33 77 35 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 70 34 76 36 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 Hereford TX 72 40 80 40 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 66 38 76 39 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 Pampa TX 67 41 77 40 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 68 40 77 42 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Wellington TX 70 40 78 43 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ 77/24