136 FXUS63 KLBF 280859 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 359 AM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021 The primary concern for the short term will revolve around strong northwesterly wind gusts this afternoon. Currently, an upper level trough axis is positioned across central Nebraska, and is moving slowly eastward. Behind this feature across the Panhandle, flow transitions to northerly, and this flow regime is anticipated to overspread the area today. Lower level flow remains very strong out of the north, at around 40-50kts at H85. Skies continue to gradually clear on the backside of the surface low, with only some high clouds remaining over far north central Nebraska. Temperatures ranged from the upper 30s over the Panhandle to the middle 40s across central Nebraska. Yet another windy day is on tap for today, with flow remaining elevated in the H7-H85 layer. As diurnal mixing gets underway today under sunny skies, expect increasing winds into this afternoon. How early this mixing occurs will have an impact on anticipated wind gusts, with a period of higher gusts this morning should deep enough mixing occur. This is tied to H85 flow on the order of 45-55kts this morning, though this weakens somewhat as we head into the afternoon hours. Regardless, expect gusts in the 40 to 50 mile per hour range through today, with the strongest winds expected across southwest into central Nebraska. Strong CAA today leads to H85 temperatures falling to around 3-5C, a few degrees cooler than yesterday, and helps to offset daytime heating. This will lead to widespread highs in the 50s today. Winds finally begin to relax late this evening and will be much lighter overnight. The light winds will combine with clear skies and promote efficient radiational cooling. Lows fall into the low 30s to upper 20s for Friday morning. Friday looks to be the quietest day of the period weather wise, as shortwave ridging slides across the northern Plains. Low level flow begins to transition southerly through the afternoon and weak WAA gets underway. Temperatures warm into the 60s amid the weak southerly flow and this looks to be the warmest day of the period for much of the area. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021 A pattern shift is on tap for the long term, bringing much cooler temperatures along with the potential for light wintry precipitation. The regime change is tied to a high-latitude blocking, with an upper ridge positioned over British Columbia and a deep low over the Gulf of Alaska. Ahead of this feature, an upper low will dive out of southern Canada and into the northern Plains. This drags a much colder Canadian airmass southward through this weekend, down the lee side of the Rockies and into the Plains. Locally, a cold front passes through the area Saturday afternoon, as a surface low ejects across southern Canada. Temperatures look to be well below average for Sunday into next week in the aforementioned Canadian airmass. Temperatures at H85 fall to near/just below freezing by Saturday night, and look to remain there for a majority of the long term period. This sets the stage for the first round of wintry precipitation for most of the CWA. By late Saturday evening, a shortwave trough begins to dive southeastward across the Intermountain West, and helps to promote increasing moisture aloft across the Plains. Top-down saturation and at least subtle isentropic ascent should promote increasing precipitation by late Saturday night over the northwestern CWA. The H7 front will begin to pass through the area near this same time, with increasing Fgen across western Nebraska. Forecast soundings indicate an all snow p-type overnight, with precipitation spreading slowly south and east with time. A changeover back to a rain/snow or all rain mode is expected during the day Sunday, before the column cools again to promote all snow Sunday night. Confidence remains low in timing and amounts, with discrepancies in deterministic/ensemble solutions noted. That said, SLRs look to be rather low, on the order of 6-8:1 with the vertical column largely above -10C. Still, lift maximizing near the DGZ and increasing H7 Fgen could lead to a narrow swath of accumulations, wherever banding can occur. This remains highly uncertain, and trends will need to be monitored. Temperatures look to remain well below average into next week, with additional low end precipitation chances continuing. This is driven by broad northwesterly flow aloft and a few shortwaves progged to pass nearby, rounding the base of the large upper low over eastern Canada. How long cold air remains in place remains somewhat unclear as well, though good agreement remains in ensemble solutions with keeping it locked in place through this next week. Bottom line remains, much colder temperatures are expected this weekend into next week, with at least a few shots at light snowfall accumulations. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021 VFR conditions expected across central and western Nebraska through the forecast period with little in the way of clouds as low pressure continues moving through the midsection of the country and high pressure builds in from the west. However this same setup is generating a tight pressure gradient across the Plains and expect strong gusty winds will develop overnight and strengthen through Thursday morning before subsiding Thursday evening. Anticipate winds at KLBF will ramp up shortly so will go with gusts at issuance with obs increasing to match. Expect the winds will create a bumpy ride for most aircraft with surface wind gusts around 40kts and possibly higher especially from KLBF southward. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Brown LONG TERM...Brown AVIATION...MBS