294 FXUS64 KAMA 270903 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 403 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021 .SHORT TERM (Today through tonight)... Overview: The short term will be dominated by strong wind speeds behind a cold front passing through the Panhandles as of writing this. Strong wind speeds will continue now through late this afternoon/early evening. With dry grasses still in place, and the strong wind speeds expected today, we will be looking at another round of potential fire weather conditions across the Panhandles. Caution should be exhibited with any outdoor sparks or flames. * High Wind Warning: - Location: Northwest Panhandles - Timing: Now through 7 pm tonight - Wind Speeds: Sustained 30-40 with gusts near 60 mph - Impacts: Difficult travel for high profile vehicles. Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines. * Wind Advisory: - Location: The remainder of the Panhandles. - Timing: 4am to 7pm - Wind Speeds: Sustained 25-35 mph with gusts as high as 50-60 mph - Impacts: Unsecured items will be blown around. Tree limbs could be blown down with isolated power lines down as well. * Red Flag Warning: - Location: Western portions of the forecast area - Timing: This afternoon - Impacts: Arching power lines could create fires and wind speeds could lead to fast fire growth given the state of the fuels. Further Details: Modest height rises (~4-6mb/3hr) will continue this morning along with a shallow mixed boundary layer. Forecast soundings indicate the potential for mixing of a stout 55-65 knot jet this morning which happens to be around 2-3K feet AGL. With the front still traversing through the area, we have at least some gradient wind component as well helping lead to this strong wind potential as well. This afternoon we do lose--to some degree--the gradient component of the wind, but forecast soundings still indicate a well mixed boundary layer with a stacked jet aloft, albeit not as strong as this mornings low level jet. Nevertheless, all things considered, we will have strong northerly sustained wind speeds today in addition to gusts as high as 50-60 mph. This will make travel difficult on west to east roadways/highways, especially for high profile vehicles. Light outdoor items that are not secured will be blown around and/or damaged. Wind speeds will finally start to relax late afternoon/early evening, but still on the breezy side overnight around 15-25 mph. Confidence in the strong winds is overall moderate to high, and we have actually extended the high wind warning to go longer than the initial issuance given the current forecast. Guerrero && .FIRE WEATHER...Today... RFTI values today will range from 3-4. Temperatures are the limiting factor today, but generally these wind driven events will when out when we have receptive fuels (which we do), even when we have minimum RFTI values for RH today. ERC values today will range from about the 50th to near the 80th percentile. RH values will drop down to around 15-20 percent today for central and western parts of the Panhandles. A high wind warning and wind advisory are in effect today as we could see gusts as high as 50-60 mph. Twenty foot winds will range from about 25 to 35 mph this afternoon. All that said, a Red Flag warning will be in effect this afternoon until 7 PM for central and western parts of the Panhandles. A Fire Danger Statement will be in effect elsewhere across the Panhandles. Guerrero && .LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday... Synopsis: Windy conditions will persist for one more day before finally settling down some on Friday. The strongest winds on Thursday will be across the eastern half of the area, where north winds could again gust over 50 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Wind highlights may be needed Thursday, but want to keep today's highlights in the focus for now. The strong winds could also promote fire growth despite high temperatures in the 60s (see fire wx discussion below). After Thursday, mainly tranquil conditions are expected until around the middle of next week when big changes may be in store as a cold Canadian airmass tries to shift into the area. For more information, see details below: Details: The latest model and ensemble suites are in decent agreement through the end of this week, but start to diverge into the weekend and especially next week. The area will start out in strong north northwest flow aloft on the backside of the slowly departing upper level trough. A stacked jet will remain over the eastern half of the area through Thursday, with an impressive 70 to 90 knot 500mb jet overlapping a 50 to 60 knot jet at 700mb. Dry air will be filtering in behind the system, keeping skies cloud free and allowing for efficient mixing. Thus, have kept windy conditions for Thursday with gusts upwards of 45 to 48 knots in the eastern zones. These values may still be too low if some of the more aggressive guidance verifies, so high wind products may be needed. Otherwise, a Wind Advisory almost certainly will be needed. By Friday, the stacked jets finally move just to the east into OK, so while north winds will persist, they will be more in the breezy category. The area will rebound into the 70s by Saturday as weak zonal flow aloft commences. Over the weekend, models indicate a strong northern stream longwave trough forming over Canada into the northern plains. This eventually becomes a large upper level low as it moves over the Hudson Bay area. The entire east central CONUS is progged to be under cyclonic flow by Tuesday next week, and this is supported among most of the guidance (including GEFS/EC ens). This synoptic pattern shift will allow for very cold air in Canada to eventually make its way down the plains and into the Panhandles. The first cold front is expected on Sunday (Halloween), but the much stronger front may not arrive until sometime between Tuesday and Thursday (models have been going back and fourth on this). Then, there is also the question of precipitation (possibly of the winter variety). A subtle upper wave is progged to cross over the southern plains around mid week. Whether this ends up being mostly cold rain or winter precipitation will depend on where the cold air is once the wave arrives. For now, have introduced a snow/rain mention for Tuesday night. NBM snow probs support the mention as does EC/GEFS probability of exceedance for 1 inch of snow. Will need to watch closely! Ward && .FIRE WEATHER...Thursday... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely on Thursday afternoon as wind driven RFTI values of 4 are expected across the eastern half of the area. At this time, there is no RH RFTI component, but it is very close as mixing should be efficient in the afternoon for RH values to drop into the 15 to 20 percent range. North twenty foot winds will peak in the 20 to 30 mph range (locally higher) with gusts up to 45 mph in the eastern zones. Red flag conditions are possible given ERC percentiles near or above 60 to 70 percent. Ward && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 64 42 64 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 64 42 64 36 69 / 5 0 0 0 0 Boise City OK 61 37 62 33 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 68 44 67 40 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 66 39 66 37 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 65 42 64 37 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 65 47 65 43 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 63 34 63 32 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 65 40 64 35 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 Hereford TX 66 40 65 37 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 62 44 64 39 68 / 5 0 0 0 0 Pampa TX 64 42 63 39 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 65 46 66 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 Wellington TX 67 47 68 42 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Deaf Smith... Donley...Gray...Hemphill...Hutchinson...Lipscomb... Ochiltree...Palo Duro Canyon...Potter...Randall...Roberts... Wheeler. High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following zones: Dallam...Hansford...Hartley...Moore...Oldham... Sherman. Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson... Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hansford...Hartley...Hutchinson... Moore...Oldham...Palo Duro Canyon...Potter...Randall... Sherman. OK...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following zones: Beaver. High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following zones: Cimarron...Texas. Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for the following zones: Cimarron...Texas. && $$ 24/7