082 FXUS64 KHGX 260037 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 737 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021 .CLIMATE... This afternoon felt very atypical for late October as temperatures were well above normal. Temperatures were actually warm enough today to break (or tie) records in quite a few locations. Huntsville reached 90 degrees and tied their record set back in 2010 along with Sugar Land which reached 91 degrees and tied their record from 2012. Additionally, Houston/Bush reached 91 degrees and tied their record set back in 1950 and Houston/Hobby reached 92 degrees and tied their record set in 1942. Pearland (90 degrees), Angleton (90 degrees), and Galveston (87 degrees) all broke their records for daily maximum temperature. Batiste && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 628 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021/... SHORT TERM [Today Through Tuesday Night]... With morning fog and low clouds beginning to clear out, this afternoon looks like a warm one across Southeast Texas as the sun comes out. Temperatures are already in the 80s across the area, with the warmest spots into the upper 80s. Those warm spots should manage to crack 90 degrees, with the rest of the area rising into the upper 80s as well. Light onshore flow looks to continue tonight, keeping dewpoints (and thus, low temps) up in the 70s for all but in the northeast towards the Pineywoods. The onshore flow may be light enough to allow fog to form again tonight - just how dense it will get is a little more in doubt, but dense fog is at least still on the table. If the winds are strong enough, overnight conditions will favor low stratus over fog Tomorrow morning, a weak shortwave trough will shoot up the Coastal Plain from Mexico. This should lower midlevel heights enough to give us a little more instability to work with and allow for some showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. With S/SW flow just above the surface, capping will probably keep things from being super active - so I stick with slight chance PoPs for the daytime. But, this looks to be a temporary sticking point. With a greater potential for clouds and scattered rain, highs tomorrow should be close to - but a little lower than today. An upper trough, fresh off of bringing heavy rain to California, will dig into the Plains and induce the development of low pressure in the lee of Rockies. As the low pushes across the Great Plains, it will drop a cold front into Texas. This trough looks pretty progressive, and am expecting this front to shove through at a pretty good clip, approaching Southeast Texas very late Tuesday night. This will tighten up the pressure gradient, boosting onshore winds and moisture flow. This creates both potential for isentropic showers near the coast late tomorrow night, but also up in our northwest as air begins to be forced upward ahead of the front. The front won't quite make it here by Wednesday (see the Long Term section for more on that), but it seems to pretty clearly get close enough to alert everyone to its imminent arrival. Luchs && LONG TERM [Wednesday through Sunday Night]... Active and unsettled weather to start off the long term as a strong cold front moves through the region. A plume of WAA and isentropic lift will favor showers ahead of the main cold front passage. The main weather concern will be along and behind the FROPA, which will make its entrance into Southeast TX Wednesday morning, moving off the coast by early Wednesday evening. As far as risks, soundings show slightly modest mid level lapse rates; however, strong deep layer shear (30-40+ knots) perpendicular to the boundary should support some organized supercells/strong updrafts along with small bowing segments along the boundary. SPC has noted this in their Day 3 outlook, which has our entire forecast area in a Slight Risk. Although the front looks to be progressive, heavy rain will also be a risk. A backing LLJ along with 925:850 mb convergence could support localized heavy rain along and ahead of the boundary. WPC highlights this threat on their Day 3 outlook for Excessive Rainfall. It is important to point out that the severe weather threat will be largely dependent on the timing of the FROPA across the region and the potential for cloudiness/stabilization from early morning showers. Convective parameters would suggest at least some severe potential but much will depend on how the finer details evolve. Behind the front, strong northwesterly winds are expected. Sfc flow will increase in response to the departing upper wave. This wave will continue to amplify as it moves toward the TN Valley, and this will increase the wind potential Thursday through Friday. Some of the stronger wind gradients will be possible Thursday night into Friday with the highest gusts along the coast and over the Gulf waters. This scenario may end up needing a wind advisory at some point. The good news is that drier air and comfortable temperatures will filter in behind the front. Highs will generally be in the 70s through Saturday. Lows will mainly be from the upper 40s and 50s into the weekend. High pressure will continue to dominate the region this weekend. A gradual warm up is expected after Sunday as southerly flow returns to the area. However, trick-or-treaters should enjoy of a quiet and comfortable evening. 05 && .AVIATION... Another round of low cloud and fog development will be possible again tonight through tomorrow morning. Forecast is tricky, and not a whole lot of confidence on how low to take the levels (winds might stay up just enough to produce some mixing) and where that might happen. Generally look for light winds along with clouds and fog tonight through tomorrow morning, followed by strengthening SE to S winds during the day tomorrow along with lifting ceilings. Will keep the TAFs dry, but we'll need to keep an eye on potential SHRA development during the day tomorrow as a disturbance moves into the area from the S and SW. Heading into tomorrow evening, winds will be staying up ahead of Wednesday's strong cold front, so anticipate only ceiling issues. 42 && MARINE... Light winds and deep low level moisture will keep the potential for patchy fog along the islands and bays overnight into early Tuesday. Otherwise, light onshore winds and low seas are expected tonight. Building seas and south to southeast flow will strengthen on Tuesday ahead of a deepening low pressure system over the Southern Rockies. Isolated to scattered showers are expected Tuesday; however, the best chance for showers and thunderstorms arrive on Wednesday with the passage of a strong cold front. Strong northwesterly winds are expected behind the front and will persist through Friday. Small Craft advisories will be likely on Wednesday and conditions will also approach Gale criteria Thursday into Friday. Another marine concern will be minor coastal flooding and strong rip currents. Strong onshore flow ahead of the front could lead to high tides Tuesday night into Wednesday and abnormally low tides in the wake of the front. 05 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 70 87 69 79 55 / 0 20 60 90 0 Houston (IAH) 71 86 73 82 58 / 0 10 40 90 10 Galveston (GLS) 76 84 77 83 64 / 0 20 50 80 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$