918 FXUS61 KBGM 251930 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 330 PM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Today will be dry, before a strong low pressure system brings additional periods of rain tonight through early Wednesday morning. Dry and seasonably mild weather returns Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 1230 pm update... Bumped temperatures up a few degrees south of the warm front. Some sites around 70 already. 910 am update... Minor adjustments. Rain lifting north out of Oneida County by 11. Clearing working into the area which will push temperatures to 65 to 70. Rain showers work back in around 8 PM. 647 am update... Cleaned up some of the forecast grids to account for a faster than anticipated movement of the rain to the north. Otherwise, majority of the active forecast in the near term remains on track with not significant changes. 412 am update... Main concerns in the near term are focused on the soaking rain lifting north through the area early this morning...mostly dry conditions mid morning through most of the day and temperatures into the 60s near 70...an expanding area of showers and isolated weak thunderstorms tonight into Tuesday morning...and lingering steady rain through the rest of the day Tue along with cooler temperatures and gusty n/ne winds. An interesting and complex weather pattern unfolding today and Tuesday with overall minimal impactful weather but still very active and challenging. Well developed low pressure system over the mid MS Valley this morning possesses a warm front which extends east across the southern Great Lakes into NY. Strong isentropic lift within a warm air advection regime and a relatively moist air mass south of the front is allowing for a broad area of rain that has soaked much of central NY and ne PA last night and early this morning with a solid 0.25 to 0.5 inch of rain. A dry punch of air from the sw is starting to arrive across wrn PA and just into the central southern tier of NY as of 4 am. This trend will continue through the day as the warm front lifts a bit more to the north and the drier air takes over. The presence of this dry layer will allow the cloud cover to dissipate, but likely not clear out completely, during the afternoon hours. Strong, continuous warm air advection combined with a fair amount of sun will push temperatures into the mid to upper 60s close to 70 in some spots. Overall, a fairly pleasant fall day. The pattern will shift back to a wet and cool one starting later tonight as the aforementioned low pressure system to the west moves into the nrn mid Atlantic region. This is where things get interesting. The upper short wave and nearly co- located surface low in the Ohio Valley will rapidly transfer energy to an up-and-coming coastal low that will track along the Carolina coast and eventually off the NJ coast by Tue morning. The phasing of these two systems will cause a rapid deepening of the coastal low which will enhance the wind field over the entire Northeast. Model guidance continues to indicate a secondary surge of warm, moist air from the south as this phasing process occurs tonight. The influx of moisture from the coastal low combined with strong layer lifting will allow for a blossoming area of rain tonight into Tue morning. There will also be a modest amount of instability available and mid level lapse rates may become steep enough for some elevated convection. The threat for heavy rain leading to flash flooding is on the low side, but cannot completely rule out some slow- moving convection (weak steering flow) that may be enhanced also by localized orographic lifting in the Catskills and Poconos...especially given the strong dynamics within the boundary layer. Rainfall rates will likely range from a quarter to a third of an inch an hour, with locally higher amounts between a half to 1 inch per hour in the heavier downpours. Total rainfall amounts today and Tuesday are expected to total a half to 1 inch over the Finger Lakes...and 1-2 inches along and east of I-81 with isolated higher amounts not out of the question in the higher terrain. This will bring some headwater streams up quickly...and possibly above Action stage, but most headwaters should remain below. Temperatures on Tuesday will be noticeably cooler with highs only topping out in the 50s. There will also be a steady north/ne wind in place most of the day around 10 to 15 mph and gusts up to 25 mph at times. These temperatures combined with wind and rain will make it feel like a raw fall day. The rain is expected to continue through the day Tuesday as well in a light/steady manner. Forcing from the coastal low and a persistent cyclonic flow pattern, with deep moisture wrapping around the n/nw side of the system will keep the threat of rain in the area through the day. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 310 PM Update... Much drier conditions for Wednesday and Thursday with ridging building into the region. Mostly cloudy skies Wednesday morning, will give way to partly cloudy skies and some sunshine by the afternoon. Temperatures for both Wednesday and Thursday will be near average to slightly above for this time of year with mid 50s to near 60 across the region for highs and lows in the mid 30s to near 40. Our next system will start to push in from the southwest Thursday night, but at this time it appears that any rainfall should hold off until Friday, with just increasing clouds expected through Friday morning. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 320 PM Update... The brief ridging and dry conditions that we see mid week breaks down for Friday and the weekend. Low pressure system will track northeastward through the Ohio Valley and into our region Friday. There remains some timing differences between the models at this time, but a blend of ensemble and deterministic guidance has rain spreading northeast across the area by Friday afternoon/evening. This system will slowly pass through the region Saturday with periods of showers expected. By Sunday morning, surface ridging will start to build in with the low exiting to the northeast. However, cool NW flow will bring moisture from the lakes and some lake enhanced showers may be possible during the day Sunday. For the start of next week, ensembles are showing some cooler air pushing into the region, with near average to slightly below average values expected at this time. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 140 pm update... VFR this afternoon into evening. The warm front has slowed to be near SYR/RME with IFR cigs just north of it. All sites will fall to MVFR cigs/vsby as the rain comes in 3 to 5z, then to IFR 7 to 10z. IFR will continue into the afternoon with a slow moving cold front and light to moderate rain. East winds at 5 to 10 kts at SYR/RME. Rest of sites south wind 5 to 10 kts becoming east at 5 kts tonight continuing through Tuesday. Outlook... Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday...Persistent rain showers with likely restrictions. Wednesday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Friday through Saturday...Restrictions likely with rain. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Flash Flood Watch from midnight EDT tonight through Tuesday evening for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072. NY...Flash Flood Watch from midnight EDT tonight through Tuesday evening for NYZ045-046-055>057-062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJT/TAC NEAR TERM...BJT/TAC SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...TAC