745 FXUS63 KBIS 250824 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 324 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 229 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021 The biggest challenge for the short-term period is in regards to the Wind Advisory in effect today for most of the western third of North Dakota. Surface high pressure over northern Ontario combined with a developing low over southeastern Montana/northeastern Wyoming will lead to a tightening pressure gradient over the region. This will result in southeast winds with gusts of 40 to 50 mph. One of the big questions remains exactly how far east advisory criteria will extend. While it naturally varies a bit by model, the greatest three hour pressure falls of around 3 to 3.5 mb remain where the advisory is in place with lesser values further east. Therefore, left the advisory as-is for now. Besides the wind advisory, skies will remain mostly cloudy through the morning before becoming partly sunny during the afternoon. Temperatures will warm to around 45 to 55 degrees, with the warmest locations being in far southwestern North Dakota. Mostly cloudy skies return tonight across the forecast area as the next system works its way into the region. Lows tonight are generally expected to be in the mid 30s to low 40s, although can vary a bit place to place depending on how cloud cover evolves tonight. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 229 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021 Starting the period, a trough knocks on the door of the Plains states and will pass through during the day Tuesday through Tuesday night. With associated surface low pressure over western North Dakota and high pressure still over northern Ontario, gusty winds will be ongoing over locations mostly along and east of Highway 83 ahead of the trough. Light rain will work across the state Tuesday into Tuesday night with amounts generally remaining under a couple tenths of an inch. Thermal profiles will remain warm enough to keep this as an all rain event. Once this rain event concludes, a ridge builds into the western CONUS and works towards the Dakotas through the latter half of the workweek. This will keep conditions mostly dry across the area and usher in seasonably warm temperatures through Saturday. Deterministic models indicate troughing breaking down the ridge towards the very end of the week. This solution is presently supported by ensembles suggesting at least a brief cool-down at the very tail end of this week and into early next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021 Widespread IFR cigs are the highlight tonight, with some potential for lowered visibility as well. IFR stratus will persist across most of western and much of central North Dakota, with higher ceilings to the east including KJMS. Monday morning will see ceilings gradually lift to MVFR and then possibly VFR around mid- day, though some MVFR may linger. Southeast winds will gradually increase in the west overnight, becoming quite gusty on Monday.. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ001-002-009-010-017>021-031>034- 040>045. && $$ SHORT TERM...Telken LONG TERM...Telken AVIATION...JJS