111 FXUS63 KMQT 241938 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 338 PM EDT Sun Oct 24 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 337 PM EDT SUN OCT 24 2021 Similar forecast as the last few days with lake-effect rain continuing now in the north to northeast wind lake-effect belts. Some wet snow/graupel have mixed in at times, even down in Mqt Twp. As anticipated, coverage and intensity of lake-effect rain has diminished this aftn as inversion heights continue to lower. Has been pockets of sunshine and clouds throughout the day and expect this trend to continue into tonight. By tonight, lake-effect rain will begin to transition to more of a drizzle in the northeast wind upslope areas. Pockets of clear skies should allow some temps to fall back into the 20s again tonight, especially across the east where NE to E downslope flow off Ontario brings clearing skies. With soil temps still in the mid to upper 40s, icing on the roadways aren't anticipated, but perhaps on a bridge is temperatures can fall to 30 or so. Pressure gradient increases late tonight into tomorrow with sfc ridge of high pressure to the north and sfc low shifting through the Ohio River Valley. Mostly cloudy conditions ahead of the wave with gusty E to NE winds are expected. The UP should remain dry with the passing system (some light showers in extreme southern Menominee County are possible), but some upslope drizzle will still remain possible through the day off of Lake Superior. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 253 PM EDT SUN OCT 24 2021 Long term period starts off with broad troughing over the eastern CONUS, ridging over the Central Plains upwards toward Hudson Bay, and broad troughing in the Rockies and western CONUS. As we progress through the week, downstream troughing will morph into a near stationary upper level low off the east coast. As the upstream troughing continues east out of the Rockies, the ridging in the middle will squeeze and slowly shift east. By late Wednesday, the trough over the Plains will take on an negative tilt as a surface low deepens. This low will gradually roll east toward the Mid- Atlantic by late Saturday but there is considerable uncertainty in its location. An inverted trough extending north out of the low and a slow moving front to the north could allow precip to spread over the region from west to east starting late Wednesday. Both the GEFS and GEPS ensemble members vary greatly and suggest the low could be as far south as Louisiana or as far north as the UP. There is more clustering of members with both ensemble systems across the middle- Mississippi River Valley, which matches with solutions presented by the 12z deterministic solutions of the GFS, Canadian and Euro. This suggests precip entering the forecast area late Wednesday or Thursday and lingering through at least early Saturday due to upstream blocking. Gradual warming aloft that will keep highs mostly in the 50s through the week. Overnight lows look to be largely in the 30s inland and in the 40s by the lakeshores. The exception looks to be Tuesday night where some interior locations could dip into the 20s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 158 PM EDT SUN OCT 24 2021 NE winds will continue to bring MVFR cigs and -shra to SAW through this evening. Diurnal-enhanced high MVFR, low VFR cigs at IWD and CMX will also continue through this evening. VFR conditions are expected at IWD, but periods of MVFR are possible. NE winds will continue through the TAF period, bringing upslope mist/drizzle to CMX and SAW through Monday, with MVFR cigs expected. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 337 PM EDT SUN OCT 24 2021 Pressure gradient increases tonight with NE winds increasing between 20 to 30 kts through Monday evening. Sfc low pressure traversing from the Plains through the Ohio River Valley shifts to the Lower Great Lakes by Monday evening with NE winds diminishing to around 20 kts or less. These seasonably calmer winds will persist through Wednesday ahead of another approaching system on Thursday which will bring an increase in SE winds to around 25 kts. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JAW LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...JAW MARINE...JAW