170 FXUS62 KMHX 240105 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 905 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will slide offshore Sunday. A cold front will push through the area Monday night into Tuesday morning, with high pressure building in behind it. A large low pressure system will affect the region Thursday and into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 905 PM Sat...High pressure is centered over the mid- Atlantic tonight and is producing calm winds and clear skies across eastern NC. This has resulted in excellent radiational cooling conditions and rapidly falling temps, thus will continue to forecast lows a few degrees below guidance with mid to upper 40s inland to mid to upper 50s along the immediate coast. Guidance indicates little in the way of fog tonight but cannot rule out patchy shallow ground fog late. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... As of 215 PM Sat...High pressure slides offshore Sunday with low level flow veering from NE early in the day to SE during the afternoon. Warm and dry conditions expected with mainly sunny skies but will likely see an increase in high clouds late. Highs expected in the upper 70s to lower 80s inland to mid 70s coast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 245 AM Sat...High will slide offshore early next week, with warm temps continuing. A developing low pressure system pass to our north Monday night, and push a cold front through the area. High pressure then briefly builds in Tuesday and Wednesday, with another stronger storm system expected to affect the area Thursday and Friday. Sunday night and Monday...High pressure remains offshore Sunday night into Monday. Continued moisture advection on Monday could yield some scattered showers or thunderstorms by the afternoon with some modest instability present. Highs Monday should climb into the low to mid 80s. Monday Night through Wednesday...A developing area of low pressure will push into the Mid-Atlantic Monday night ahead of a sharp upper level shortwave. As the low moves offshore overnight, it will drag a cold front to its south through Eastern NC. A quick shot of rain with some scattered thunderstorms can expected across the area overnight. Will have to watch for the potential of any strong to severe storms given strong dynamics in place, however the unfavorable nocturnal passage of the front and lack of instability inland from the coast will be limiting factors. The front will be offshore by mid morning Tuesday, and with most models now showing stronger CAA behind it, temperatures will only warm into the upper 60s to low 70s despite clearing skies. High pressure will try to build into the area Wednesday, however a stalled area of low pressure over the southern New England coast will keep low level heights from building much through the day, and another seasonable day is expected with highs ranging from the upper 60s to around 70. Thursday and Friday...A deep upper level trough and/or cut off low will lumber across the central US next week reaching the Deep South early Thursday. Surface low pressure is then expected to deepen and race inland up the East coast Thursday and into Friday. With the latest forecast cycle, there are both significant timing and meteorological differences between the GFS, ECMWF, and CMC through this period. The GFS remains the fastest solution, and splits the low pressure system with one low occluding over the southern Great Lakes, while another low races to the NC coast and moves offshore and up the Eastern Seaboard. The ECMWF and CMC are much slower showing impacts from this system more on Friday than Thursday as the GFS has it. The ECMWF shows more of a classic Nor'Easter solution with low pressure moving eastward from the Deep South and off the NC coast before rapidly deepening and moving up the East Coast. The CMC seems to be somewhere in the middle of these two solutions. At any rate, given the uncertainty, will keep an extended period of chance PoPs for Thursday and into Friday. The eventual speed and strength of the system will determine the impacts felt here, but there is some potential for heavy rain, severe weather, strong winds, and minor coastal flooding with this system. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Sunday/... As of 605 PM Sat...No changes to previous thinking. Pred VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with mainly clear skies and light winds. Despite excellent radiational cooling conditions, guidance is not indicating fog development tonight but cannot rule out patchy shallow ground fog late tonight. LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/... As of 325 AM Sat...High pressure builds into the area through Monday, with VFR conditions expected. A cold front will bring the potential for rain Monday night and into Tuesday morning, and some periods of sub-VFR conditions will be possible. VFR conditions return for the rest of Tuesday as well as Wednesday. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Sunday/... As of 905 PM Sat...High pressure centered across the mid- Atlantic states tonight will slide offshore Sunday. N to NW winds 10 kt or less tonight veer to the E to SE Sunday. Seas will continue 2-3 ft. LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/... As of 325 AM Sat...Decent boating conditions are expected for the period, with high pressure in control until Monday night when a cold front moves through the coastal waters. As high pressure slides farther offshore Sunday night, winds will slowly veer around to SSE 10-20 kts Sunday night. Winds subside slightly Monday morning, but then increase again to S 15-20 kts by Monday afternoon. By Monday night winds will peak at 15-25 kts just ahead of a cold front, and then turn to the W at 15-25 kts behind the front on Tuesday. Marginal Small Craft conditions will be possible both ahead of the front Monday night, and behind on Tuesday. Winds subside some Wednesday becoming W at 10-15 kts. Seas will be mostly 2-3 ft through Monday morning, and then build to 3-5 ft Monday afternoon through Tuesday, with some brief periods of 6 foot seas possible. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...JME/SK SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...SGK AVIATION...JME/SK/SGK MARINE...JME/SK/SGK