527 FXUS64 KAMA 211806 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 106 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021 .AVIATION...18z TAF Cycle... The brief MVFR conditions at KAMA have cleared out as clouds have shifted east of the terminals. Another round of low ST is possible tonight, which could include MVFR/IFR being a bit more widespread from about 10z to 15z. The latest guidance has backed off the fog potential, but still can't rule out some patchy fog especially on the Caprock. Otherwise, southerly winds will become light and variable overnight (keeping mainly a southerly component). Ward && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 615 AM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021/ AVIATION... 12Z Issuance...Low clouds are creeping up into the southern TX Panhandle, but confidence is still low on if they will affect AMA. For now, sites are VFR, but do expect that after 06Z tonight that conditions will lower as fog and low clouds develop at all sites. Winds will swing back and forth between southeasterly to southwesterly during the day and back to southeasterly overnight. Confidence is decent on seeing the fog tonight, but unsure just how thick the fog will be and how low it will make ceilings. Beat PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 247 AM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021/ SHORT TERM...Today through Friday Night... Mostly dry, but fog is fairly likely tonight into Friday morning. Looking at satellite this morning shows some high clouds streaming across the northwestern portions of the Panhandles. The clouds will continue pushing eastward, but they aren't expected to have much affect on temps as they will dissipate out. Satellite also shows an area to the south and east of Lubbock that is low clouds. These don't look to have the potential for reaching our area, and are following along the path of a mid-level shortwave. With surface winds turning back to the south today, WAA will allow for highs to reach back up into the 70s today across the CWA. The southerly flow will also transport moisture up from the Gulf. Another shortwave looks to transverse the northwesterly flow aloft and cross the Panhandles this evening and overnight. If there is enough moisture as the wave crosses, we may see some showers develop. The best area for this looks to be in our far south- central area, but the chances are still low (10 percent at best). What is more likely to be seen is the southeasterly flow overnight will provide enough uplift for the moisture to turn into fog and low clouds across the Panhandles starting after midnight and lasting into the morning. By mid morning though would expect the sun to burn off the fog and by the afternoon, mostly sunny skies should prevail. With the slower start to warming, blended highs on Friday with the NAM and NBM. If the fog burns off quicker, the warmer NBM may win out. With the leftover moisture in place, overnight temps will remain in the 40s in the northwest and 50s elsewhere for Friday night. Beat LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday Upper ridge over the Panhandles Saturday will break down and move off to the east by Saturday evening. Shortwave trough will approach the Panhandles from the central Rockies Saturday night and then track east across the central Plain states and the forecast area Sunday. No precip is expected with the shortwave trough as it moves across the Panhandles Sunday. Flat upper ridge builds over the forecast area Sunday night and Monday before shifting east away from the forecast area Monday night and Tuesday. Another upper trough to approach the Panhandles from the west Tuesday into Tuesday night. Convection will be possible Tuesday evening across the eastern Oklahoma and eastern Texas Panhandles as the upper trough tracks east out of the southern U.S. Rockies. Closed upper low to track over the Panhandles late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning before exiting the forecast area late Wednesday. Some lingering precip may still be possible Wednesday afternoon across the eastern third or half of the forecast area, however confidence low at this time and will opt with a dry forecast Wednesday for now. Surface low over southwest Kansas Saturday with frontal boundary stretches east to west across central or southern Kansas into southeastern Colorado or across the Oklahoma Panhandle. Front to retreat northward late Saturday and early Saturday night before surging slowly south again late Saturday night into Sunday morning through the Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandles. Cold front continues south across the southern Texas Panhandle by Sunday afternoon before finally exiting the forecast area Sunday evening and Sunday night. Surface high builds in over the Panhandles Monday but then quickly exits the Panhandles to the east Monday afternoon as lee surface trough and lee surface low develop across Colorado and New Mexico. Surface low deepens across eastern Colorado Tuesday and then moves slowly east into western Kansas with the surface trough moving to near the New Mexico state line or the far western Panhandles by Tuesday evening. The surface low will usher in a cold front Tuesday night with surface ridge building into the Panhandles Wednesday. Unseasonably warm this weekend into early next week before turning much cooler Wednesday. Schneider FIRE WEATHER... Confidence is trending much lower for Saturday, however elevated fire weather may still be possible mainly across the western Oklahoma and far northwest Texas Panhandles. Max RFTIs are only around 1 to possibly as high as 2 with minimum afternoon RH values as low as 13 to 16 percent Saturday afternoon. Southwest 20 foot winds to increase near 15 to 25 mph with gusts as high as 30 to 35 mph. Increased confidence for elevated and possibly critical fire weather conditions Tuesday across the northwest half to two-thirds of the Panhandles from roughly Beaver county southwest into Armstrong county westward. Max RFTIs are forecast to be around 1 to 3 on Tuesday with minimum afternoon RH values as low as 15 to 19 percent. Southwest 20 foot winds will increase to around 15 to 25 mph or 20 to 30 mph with gusts near 35 to 40 mph Tuesday afternoon. Schneider && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ 7/99