025 
FXUS64 KMOB 210501
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1201 AM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021

.AVIATION...
06Z issuance...Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are
expected to increase in coverage through Thursday morning then
diminish during the afternoon leaving isolated showers and storms
for Thursday evening. MVFR conditions will accompany the heavier
showers and storms. An IFR to LIFR ceiling may develop over
southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama overnight,
which then improves to VFR later Thursday morning. Light
southeasterly winds tonight become southerly 5 to 10 knots on
Thursday, becoming southwesterly in the afternoon. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1001 PM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021/ 

NEAR TERM /Now Through Friday/...Through Thursday, a well 
defined shortwave trof over the central/northern Plains advances 
eastward and merges with a Canadian upper trof to begin to form a 
broad upper trof over the interior eastern states. A surface low 
located well to the north brings a weak trailing cold front 
southward, which moves through the forecast area Thursday night. A
nearly zonal flow pattern will be in place over the forecast area
through Thursday, after which the eastern states upper trof
pattern amplifies through Friday. A series of shortwaves embedded
within the zonal flow will support chance to likely pops tonight
and Thursday. Slight chance pops at best are expected Thursday 
night as the series of shortwaves shift out of the area along with
drier deep layer air beginning to flow into the region. Dry
conditions are expected on Friday as progressively drier deep 
layer air flows into the area as the eastern states upper trof 
continues to amplify. Lows tonight range from the mid 60s inland
to near 70 at the coast, then lows Thursday night range from the
mid 50s to lower 60s northwest of I-65 with mainly mid 60s 
elsewhere. Patchy fog is possible over interior areas tonight. Highs
on Thursday will be around 80 to the lower 80s, then highs on 
Friday range from the mid to upper 70s well inland to the lower 
80s elsewhere. A high risk of rip currents continues through 
tonight, after which a moderate risk of rip currents is expected 
through Thursday night, with a low risk following for Friday. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM CDT Thursday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM CDT Thursday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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