752 FXUS63 KAPX 192329 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 729 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 .NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight) Issued at 306 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 ...Not as Chilly Tonight... High pressure continues to depart to our southeast tonight continuing the quiet stretch of weather for one more night. Light southwest winds are expected to keep temperatures from dropping off too much tonight with forecast lows ranging from the milder mid 40s to the low 50s. Meanwhile, mid and high level clouds will be on the increase in advance of a weather system which will affect northern Michigan later Wednesday on into Thursday. && .SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Friday) Issued at 306 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...As a developing system to our west approaches the forecast area and continues to deepen slightly, deeper moisture will advect on strong southerly flow with the warm front draped across central lower Michigan, returning shower/thunder chances to the area. The low continues to deepen slightly more as it crosses through lower Michigan Thursday. Winds then veer to north- northwesterly behind the departing system Thursday, ushering in cooler temperatures with gusts of 20-25mph. Eastern upper may see some lake effect begin at this time as cooler 850mb temperatures will descend there first, along with wrap around moisture, with 850mb temperatures of -2 to -5C. Northern lower will see this begin later in the evening to the overnight hours into the next forecast period as this colder air pushes farther south. Partly to mostly cloudy skies and chances of rain and rain/snow during the overnight hours will last throughout the forecast period. One concern with lake effect is the possibly of wind shifts. The latest model runs actually have more of a northerly flow which would greatly reduce the area who would see precipitation Thursday night through Friday. Will have to keep an eye on the wind directions and make any necessary changes as they come up. Temperatures Wednesday will vary greatly from north to south, with eastern upper only reaching into the upper 50s (but still above normal) and northeast lower into the mid to upper 60s. Thursday will be cooler yet again as the colder air filters in on the north- northwesterly flow, reaching into the 50s throughout the entire forecast area. Friday will cool even more and struggle to even get to 50 degrees as the colder air continues to filter in under cloud cover. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 306 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 High Impact Weather Potential...minimal. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...As this departing system from the previous forecast period continues off to the northeast 850mb temperatures will continue to hover around -2 to -5C throughout the entire forecast area with winds north-northwesterly to northwesterly producing some lake effect/enhanced showers in that favorable wind regime area. Friday night and Saturday night may be the first chance for some to see snow flying as overnight temperatures near or possibly exceed freezing. This will be mostly over the higher terrain of interior northern lower and eastern upper Michigan. No accumulations are expected as ground temperatures will be too warm and some locations may even be mixed with some rain as you move farther from the higher terrain areas. High pressure once again builds over the forecast area...ending precipitation chances Sunday as the associated drier air moves in as well. This does not look to stick around too long though, as the pattern still seems to remain rather progressive with another system moving in at the beginning of the next work week. For the most part, daytime temperatures seem to remain in the upper 40s to low 50s throughout the entire long term period at this time. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 729 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 VFR, trending MVFR toward Wednesday evening. A cold front will slowly drop southward across the area on Wednesday. Clouds will increase and lower, and showers will become more common, especially Wed afternoon. Most of the TAF period looks VFR, but cigs will near MVFR criteria as we approach Wednesday evening. Light sw breezes will become variable overnight into Wednesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 306 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Southwest winds of 10 to 15 knots will continue into tonight with a few gusts to near 20 knots into this evening. Winds will then shift into the west Wednesday morning and then north Wednesday night at around 10 knots. Gusty north winds are expected Thursday when small craft advisories may be needed. Meanwhile, showers will move into the nearshore zones from west to east later Wednesday into Wednesday night. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...AS SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...JZ MARINE...AS