836 FXUS61 KALY 192323 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 723 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to bring warmer and dry weather into our region through Wednesday. Our next system will move across the region Thursday into Friday with a round of rain showers. Cooler air returns on Friday and continues into the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... .UPDATE...Some mid level clouds have increased for areas north/east of Albany early this evening, so made some adjustments to account for this. Otherwise, skies are clear across the rest of the area. Persistent westerly breeze keeping temperatures from cooling quickly, with most of the region in the 50s as of 7 PM. Dry conditions will continue tonight. .PREVIOUS[0349]...Upper-level ridging will continue to build across the region tonight as a large area of high pressure is centered across the southeastern U.S. Dry weather will continue along with some patchy clouds. With continued warm air advection, temperatures will not fall as far as last night. We may encounter a night of variable low temperatures based on which areas are able to decouple with light winds versus those that do not and have a continued westerly breeze. As a result of the wind, we are not anticipating widespread fog. Lows tonight will only dip into the mid-40s to mid-50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The ridge will crest across our region on Wednesday as high pressure continues to advect in warmer air aloft. It will continue to be a breezy afternoon but with winds aloft being weaker than on Tuesday, it will not be as breezy. Still, some wind gusts 20 to 25 mph will be possible, especially in the favored west-east channeled areas. Highs will reach the upper 50s to lower 60s in the higher elevations and the upper 60s to lower 70s in the valleys. During Wednesday night, a frontal boundary will approach far northern areas where a shower or two will be possible. Otherwise, high pressure and upper-level ridging will continue to bring dry weather elsewhere. Winds should become light Wednesday night and result in more ideal radiational cooling conditions under a partly cloudy sky. This could lead to some patchy fog, but it looks to be fairly isolated at this time. Lows will dip into the 40s to lower 50s. An upper-level shortwave and surface low pressure system will push across the region Thursday through Thursday night. The surface low will track to our north and west. The frontal boundary across northern areas early in the day should lift northward as a warm front placing much of the region in the 'warm sector' during the afternoon. A few showers will be possible along the warm front across northern areas, mainly early in the day. The greatest dynamics and precipitation potential will be along and ahead of the cold front which looks to occur late Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. Instability looks to be fairly minimal and, especially if convection occurs toward or after sunset, thunder chances are low. So, we will not include any thunder for this update. Highs on Thursday look to be similar to Wednesday with upper 50s/lower 60s in the higher elevations to the upper 60s/lower 70s in the valleys. Lows Thursday night will be dependent on the timing of the cold front in which a fairly strong baroclinic zone will be present. For now, will run with lower 40s across the Adirondacks to the lower 50s in the valleys. If the front were to arrive sooner, temperatures could fall further than current predictions. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Broad cyclonic flow will be in place over the Northeast this weekend, ushering in chillier than normal temperatures. While there does not look to be much in the way of organized precipitation, some scattered showers are possible, including some chances for snowflakes in the higher terrain areas. Read on for details. We start off the long term on Friday with broad cyclonic flow in place over the eastern half of the CONUS. A cold front from Thursday night should be off shore with southwest flow staying in place behind the boundary as the core of the cooler air lags behind the initial boundary. Therefore, temperatures on Friday should remain above normal with highs in the 60s, although it will feel cooler in comparison to Wed/Thurs. A secondary cold front then pushes through Saturday ahead of a shortwave trough embedded in the broader cyclonic flow. Winds in the wake of the shortwave shift to the northwest, ushering in cooler temperatures, especially if the shortwave becomes weakly negatively tilted as the CMC and ECMWF suggest. Highs should return to seasonable levels with most only reaching into the low to mid 50s. Guidance continues to hint that the incoming shortwave should provide sufficient lift resulting in scattered showers for parts of western New England and eastern NY. The CMC and especially the ECMWF have been a bit more robust with these showers compared to the drier GFS solution. For now, we stuck with chance and slight chance POPs for Saturday. West to northwest flow overnight may support some lake enhanced showers which could fall as rain/snow mix in the higher terrain of the western Adirondacks. Elsewhere, most should stay dry overnight with subsidence building aloft. However, temperatures turn chilly with overnight lows Saturday night falling into the mid to upper 30s. Higher terrain areas could drop towards freezing. Sunday will certainly feel like fall as temperatures turn even cooler. Highs barely reach into the low to mid 50s for valley areas with the hill towns and terrain only reaching into the 40s. A more potent shortwave embedded in the broader cyclonic flow pushes through the region which should produce yet another chance for scattered showers (mainly north of I-90) with winds in the wake of the shortwave turning breezy. There is good consensus that the cool pool within the shortwave could be quite cool, with sub -25C isotherms at 500hPa on the ECMWF and GFS which could support diurnal/instability driven daytime showers on Sunday. Again though there are little signs for any organized precipitation. Despite cool air aloft, 850hPa isotherms are not terribly cool at only a few degrees below 0C so daytime highs will only be 5 or so degrees below normal. Sunday night overnight lows turn chilly with lows in the low to mid 30s with even upper 20s in the higher terrain of the southern Greens/Adirondacks as high pressure builds eastward from Canada. Lake enhanced showers are still possible in the higher terrain areas which could fall as rain/snow in the western Adirondacks, parts of the eastern Catskills and higher terrain of the Taconics/Berkshires before subsidence from the incoming high suppresses any showers. Guidance differs on how the pattern will evolve Monday into Tuesday. The ECMWF suggests high pressure takes control of the Northeast while the GFS and CMC show a closed low from the Great Lakes advancing eastward with its precipitation shield spreading into the Northeast. Too much uncertainty still in place so we continue to show slight chance POPs for Monday/Tuesday. && .AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Areas of midlevel (VFR) stratus exist from the I-90 corridor northward, modulated by mountain waves. This pocket of moisture will move off to the east in concert with a midlevel trough, with VFR conditions persisting past sunset. Some lower (MVFR) stratus may develop late tonight due to warm advection aloft causing an inversion and some moisture advection below the inversion. These stratus will likely impact KPSF and possibly KALB. No fog issues are anticipated due to a healthy pressure gradient being maintained between departing low pressure to the northeast and building high pressure to the southwest. Any stratus should mix out by late morning/early afternoon Wednesday, with VFR conditions continuing. Winds will remain gusty from the west for the remainder of the daylight hours, with gusts of 25-30 kt likely to continue at KALB/KPSF and possibly a couple of gusts to 20 kt at KPOU. Flow is blocked at KGFL, so winds have been more southerly. Low level wind shear will be a concern here through the night unless the winds turn westerly for a time. Winds will diminish to 5 to 10 kt after sunset. Outlook... Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure will continue to bring warmer and dry weather into our region through Wednesday. Our next system will move across the region Thursday into Friday with a round of rain showers. Cooler air returns on Friday and continues into the upcoming weekend. RH values will rise to 80 to 95 percent tonight and lower to 45 to 60 percent on Wednesday. RH values rise to 90 to 100 percent Wednesday night. Westerly winds are expected through Wednesday at 7-14 mph with occasional gusts 20 to 25 mph Wednesday afternoon. Wind will become light and variable Wednesday night. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrological issues or concerns are expected over the next five to seven days. Dry weather continues through Wednesday before our next system brings rain showers to the region Thursday into Friday. Rainfall amounts looks to be mainly 0.50 of an inch or less and will have little affect on area rivers and streams. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Rathbun NEAR TERM...JPV/Rathbun SHORT TERM...Rathbun LONG TERM...Speciale AVIATION...Thompson FIRE WEATHER...Rathbun HYDROLOGY...Rathbun