188 
FXUS63 KSGF 192307
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
607 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...Updated 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

Breezy winds and dry conditions will persist into this evening.
Tonight will be warmer than last night by several degrees as the
airmass will be warmer and surface winds will be stronger.

A cold front will move through the region Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected
along the front, mainly along and east of Highway 65. Dry air will
limit coverage and precip amounts, but could see a stronger 
updraft or two capable of gusty winds mainly across portions of 
central MO. 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

Following the cold front, temperatures will be be closer to normal
Wednesday night through Friday with lows in the 40s and highs in
the mid 60s to low 70s.

Overall expect the area to increasingly come under the influence
of upper ridging through at least early next week, leading to
warming conditions. By early next week, even the 25th percentile 
temperature guidance from the NBM is above normal, so confidence 
is increasing in well above normal temperatures with highs in the
mid 70s to around 80 Sunday through Tuesday.

Precip chances are trending higher Saturday into early Monday as a
couple of shortwaves are modeled to move through the region. 
Exact details remain unclear, but at this time the best chances 
will be across the northern CWA. Could see some heavy rainfall, 
but not seeing indications of widespread flooding at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

Expect mostly clear skies through tonight with southeast surface 
winds at 5 to 10 knots. LLWS of 35 to 40 knots is possible at all 
TAF sites after 06Z.

For Wednesday, clouds will be on the increase through the late
morning into the afternoon as a weak system slides through the 
region. Isolated showers are possible, but the coverage will be 
limited and is currently not being reflected in the TAFs. 
Meanwhile, winds will become south/southwesterly on Wednesday with
gusts of 20 to 25 knots at KSGF and KJLN.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Perez