691 
FXUS65 KLKN 192119
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
219 PM PDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Weak high pressure will bring quiet weather for most
of of the area, though a weak wave could bring a few showers 
across northern Nevada Wednesday afternoon, mainly north of I-80.
Continued warming expected for the latter portions of the week,
with the potential of a wet weekend increasing, especially Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday. Mainly sunny skies have 
developed through the late morning and early afternoon due to a 
shortwave high pressure system moving across northern and central 
Nevada. Look for a cool night as temperatures dip into the 20s.

This feature will quickly move across the area during the 
overnight, allowing some energy to move into far northwestern 
Humboldt and Elko counties. A sprinkle or light shower is possible
but little to no accumulation is expected. Otherwise, other areas
may see some clouds but quiet weather. Overnight lows will be in 
the 20s.

By Wednesday, an east Pacific trough will dig a little south and
allow increasing heights over northern and central Nevada. This
will help to bring warmer temperatures to the region with highs in
the upper 50s to mid 60s. Afternoon breezes with some gusts to 20
to 25 mph especially across northern Nevada.

.LONG TERM...Thursday night through next Tuesday. 

Generally speaking, the extended period will be defined by wet 
and active weather along with breezy to windy conditions as a 
series of Pacific systems exact influence over the western U.S. 

Thursday night thru Friday night: A modest frontal boundary is 
forecast to begin moving into NW Nevada Thursday night. Guidance 
is still indicating some discrepancy in how deep the upper trough 
is expected to dig, but it will likely just clip northern Nevada. 
Scattered to isolated rain and mountain snow look to be relegated 
to the northern half of the CWA. Expect breezier S/SW winds, 
particularly in and near Humboldt county, which are to turn more 
westerly Friday night as shower activity tapers down from west to 
east. Low temps Thursday night will range between mid 30s to near 
40. Highs Friday will be mostly in the 60s, with overnight lows in
the low to upper 30s. 

Saturday and Saturday night: The jet exit region looks to be 
centered over the state with a thermal boundary from south to 
north. A shortwave ejected from a strong circulation over the Gulf
of Alaska looks to be guided along the ID and NV border. This 
paired with jet energy will likely produce some rain and mountain 
snow showers over the northern half of the CWA. Westerly winds 
will likely remain breezier with lighter conditions for the 
southern CWA. High temps will range from near 50 along the Idaho 
border to mid 60s in northern Nye county. Lows will be mostly in 
the 30s. 

Sunday thru Tuesday: The next and more substantial frontal push 
is expected to begin moving in from the W/NW Sunday/Sunday night. 
With an atmospheric river indicated to be directed toward northern
and central California, there is a good chance for elevated 
PWAT’s across the Great Basin as some moisture should inevitably
make it across the Sierras. A band of rain and mountain snow is 
to move through the CWA Monday with snow levels lowering post 
frontal. A rain snow mix is generally expected for most valley 
locations Monday night at this time. Activity is to also move out 
of the region to the east Monday night. A few isolated showers 
will likely linger through the day Tuesday. S/SW winds will be 
much windier than the previous days, especially in and near White 
Pine and the eastern half of N Nye counties. Winds are to turn NW 
as the frontal boundary progresses. Near seasonable temps Sunday 
will cool to a few degrees below normal for Tuesday. 


&&

.AVIATION...Look for VFR conditions for the next 24 hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...No fire weather concerns at this time. High
pressure will bring some quiet weather to the area, though some
locations north of I-80 could see some light showers. Otherwise,
temperatures will be around normal or so. Looking ahead, a fairly
active pattern is beginning to take shape for the weekend and
beyond. 

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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