978 FXUS64 KBMX 192116 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 416 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 .SHORT TERM... /Updated at 1221 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021/ Through Tomorrow. High pressure situated over the Southeast region is being accompanied by an abundance of dry air which will continue to support stable conditions across the area. It will feel pleasant outside this afternoon with sunshine and highs in the 70s. The ridge will shift east tomorrow as a low pressure system tracks towards the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. This orientation will allow low-level moisture to begin increasing as southerly flow amplifies. Deeper moisture content will focus along the Gulf coast where scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop by the afternoon. Most of that activity will remain south of our forecast area, but some light showers may enter our southwestern counties during the day with PoPs around 20%. The rest of the area will remain dry and partly cloudy with the southerly flow providing some warmer air. Lows will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s, but temperatures will warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s by the afternoon. 86 .LONG TERM... /Updated at 0406 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021/ No big changes to ongoing long term forecast. Only window of opportunity for rain over the next 7 days is in the late Wednesday to late Thursday time frame, as upper level shortwave trough passes to Alabama's north, dragging an associated cold front through our area. Will maintain thunderstorm chances on Thursday, given progged instability values. Could be some light overrunning rain Friday/Friday night. It looks like chances of measurable precip are small enough at this time to leave out of the forecast. /61/ Previous long-term discussion: /Updated at 0332 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021/ Thursday through Monday. Rain and thunderstorm chances increase across Central AL late Wednesday night through late Thursday. A cold front associated with a low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes region will push southeastward towards Central AL under quasi-zonal flow aloft. Instability ahead of the front could increase to over 1000 J/kg with decent mid level lapse rates, which would support thunderstorm development. The weak flow aloft and lack of significant forcing should limit any severe potential with thunderstorms that do develop in our area. There's still some uncertainty on what happens to the frontal boundary Thursday night through Friday. Some guidance suggests the front stalls across Central AL and lifts back northward, while other guidance has the front pushing south and east of our area before stalling across the Northern Gulf Coast. For now, I've kept 15-20% chance for showers through much of the day on Friday to account for the slower solutions, but any moisture and forcing should decrease by Friday evening, leading to little to no rain chances for the weekend. An area of high pressures over the Coastal Carolinas strengthens on Monday as slight ridging build in across the Gulf States aloft. This should keep our area rain-free as we head into next week, though temperatures and moisture should begins to trend upward with the increased southerly flow. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF Discussion. Dry, stable conditions remain present across Central AL with high pressure centered just to our east. This will result in VFR conditions through this forecast period with a light, southeasterly breeze around 3 to 6 kts. A SCT presence of high clouds will enter from the west later today and overnight as the high pressure center shifts east. Note: AMD NOT SKED is appended at KBHM due to ASOS power loss until further notice. 86 && .FIRE WEATHER... Increasing moisture ahead of a cold front will increase afternoon RH values above 50% Wednesday afternoon. Rain chances return late Wednesday night through Friday afternoon as a cold front moves through the region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 45 77 58 77 57 / 0 0 20 70 40 Anniston 50 80 61 78 59 / 0 0 20 60 40 Birmingham 53 79 62 78 59 / 0 0 30 70 30 Tuscaloosa 54 80 64 79 59 / 0 10 30 60 20 Calera 52 78 63 77 60 / 0 0 30 70 30 Auburn 52 78 61 76 62 / 0 0 10 40 30 Montgomery 53 82 64 81 63 / 0 0 20 50 30 Troy 53 81 62 81 64 / 0 0 20 50 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$