628 FXUS65 KPUB 192103 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 303 PM MDT Tue Oct 19 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 243 PM MDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Currently, upper low moving eastward along the CO/WY border, leaving most of srn CO on the drier/windier side of the system. Have seen a few scattered snow showers along the Continental Divide at times this afternoon, though most activity has been brief and light. Winds have been strong across the entire region, and many spots have seen gusts in the 25-35 kt range for much of the day. Red Flag Warning has verified over most of the I-25 corridor and eastern plains, as humidity has fallen to near or slightly below 15 percent along and east of the mountains. Tonight, cold front, evident on KPUX radar over nrn El Paso County as of 21z, will drop south through the plains this evening, with a brief period of gusty north winds for an hour or two following the fropa. By midnight, winds diminish across most of the mountains and plains, save for some strong west winds over the higher peaks, and some occasionally gusty north winds near the Palmer Divide and close to the KS border. Snow showers along the Continental Divide should fade away during the evening, lingering longest over the higher peaks in Lake County, and expect only minor additional accumulations at best. Wednesday looks like a fine fall day across the region, with clear skies, max temps around seasonal averages and much lighter winds at all locations. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 243 PM MDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Models are in good agreement through the extended period, with high fire danger over the weekend into early next week, and high winds possible Saturday night into Sunday morning. Ensemble spreads are relatively low, and the Canadian is a minor operational outlier with a slightly deeper wave moving across the area Saturday night. Wednesday night through Friday...upper level high pressure will move eastward across the region during this period. This will lead to dry conditions with mostly clear skies. Temperatures will remain mild, with lower to mid 70s for afternoon highs, while overnight lows will generally range in the 30s to lower 40s. The San Luis Valley will be slightly cooler, with 60s for highs and teens to 20s for lows. Saturday and Sunday...as the upper ridge shifts eastward, an upper trough will take shape over the western states. A quick moving lead shortwave is forecast to move across Colorado on Saturday. The Canadian is the outlier solution with this wave, with it tracking a bit further south across our forecast area, while the GFS and ECMWF are across northern Colorado. For the most part our forecast area will remain dry, but there may be a few high elevation snow showers over the weekend along the Continental Divide, with the best coverage expected north of Cottonwood Pass. Only minor accumulations may be possible above 10 kft. Near critical fire weather conditions may be possible Saturday afternoon across portions of the Plains due to low humidity values and gusty westerly winds as the upper wave passes by. The main concern looks the be the potential for strong winds Saturday night into Sunday morning. Both the GFS and ECMWF with their northerly track, develop westerly flow perpendicular to our north- south oriented mountain ranges. While its still too early for the coarser resolution models to see high the potential for high winds, the synoptic setup appears favorable. Currently, it looks like areas in the lee of the Wet Mountains and Sangre de Cristo Range could see the strongest winds. This will need to be monitored. Temperatures will continue to be mild with 70s to lower 80s on the Plains, and 60s over the San Luis Valley. Monday and Tuesday...the upper trough out west will continue to strengthen, with increasing southwesterly flow across southern Colorado. This will lead to high fire danger for both Monday and Tuesday, as strong southwesterly winds move across the area. Humidity values will also be low, and the NBM output guidance is likely too high at this point. But widespread high fire danger will be possible. These two days will need to be watched. Afternoon temperatures will remain warm, with 70s to lower 80s across the Plains and 60s over the San Luis Valley. Mozley && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 243 PM MDT Tue Oct 19 2021 VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. At KALS, w-sw winds will gust near 30 kts at times into the evening, then diminish 01z-03z. Light wind expected overnight and Wednesday. At KCOS and KPUB, winds will shift to the north and remain gusty until 02z-04z behind a cold front dropping south through the plains. Winds then diminish overnight into Wed morning, and light winds expected during the day Wed. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ222-227>237. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...MOZLEY AVIATION...PETERSEN