171 FXUS63 KGLD 192050 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 250 PM MDT Tue Oct 19 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 250 PM MDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Tonight...an upper level low pressure area currently spinning over northeast Colorado/southeast Wyoming will continue moving northeast into north central Nebraska overnight. At the surface, a strong cold front noted by 3 hour pressure rises up to 10mb reaches the northwest 1/2 or so of the forecast area early this evening with surface winds gusting up to 45 mph. After mid evening northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected. Ongoing local research supports at least a mention of blowing dust west of a line from Benkelman, Nebraska to Colby, Kansas through about sunset. Low temperatures fall into the lower 30s in far eastern Colorado, lower 30s to around 40 elsewhere. Wednesday-Wednesday night...as the storm system continues moving away from the area there is good agreement on some weak upper level ridging moving in from the west ahead of another storm system well off the pacific northwest coast. High temperatures are expected to be in the middle 50s to lower 70s. Breezy northwest winds are expected during the day with gusts up to 35 mph as the pressure gradient remains tight through much of the day. High pressure moves in during the night allowing low temperatures to drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Frost is a good bet for much of the night across the entire forecast area. Thursday-Thursday night...upper level ridging sharpens a bit west of the Continental Divide in response to the slowly deepening storm off the west coast. High temperatures warm into the middle 60s to lower 70s. Low temperatures wont be quite as cold with readings in the lower 30s to near 40 degrees. Friday...the upper ridge axis slowly moves east toward the Continental Divide. Warmer temperatures are expected with highs in the lower to middle 70s. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 204 PM MDT Tue Oct 19 2021 The main concern for the extended forecast is dry conditions and the possibility of near-critical to critical fire weather conditions. The forecast begins Friday night with northwest flow aloft over the Central High Plains as a ridge treks eastward into the Dakotas and Nebraska. Temperatures are expected to remain in the 40s for areas in Kansas mainly along and south of Interstate 70. A bit of patchy frost may be possible in eastern Colorado where temperatures dip into the mid-30s. Saturday, the ridge pushes east and a trough moves in resulting in southwest flow aloft over the Tri-State area. The best chance for any precipitation continues to be to the north and east of the area, so have maintained dry conditions through Saturday and Sunday. Dry conditions persist into the start of next week with temperatures returning to the 70s for highs on Monday and Tuesday. Lows are also looking slightly warmer, in the 40s and 50s on Tuesday morning. Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will be possible in eastern Colorado on Monday and Tuesday as our next system advances. Minimum relative humidity values will be in the upper teens to low 20s with wind gusts of 25+ mph possible for a few hours in the afternoon. Tuesday night, a cold front is expected to move into the region which will bring another round of cool temperatures to the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1155 AM MDT Tue Oct 19 2021 KGLD...VFR conditions are currently expected through the period. Southwest winds gusting to 30kts at taf issuance will veer to the west at similar speeds around 21z then northwest at similar speeds, maybe higher around 00z. There is a small chance for blowing dust and sub VFR conditions around the 00z timeframe. For the remainder of the period northwest winds gusting to 30kts or so are expected. Stratus and sub VFR cigs are possible in the 08z-12z timeframe. KMCK...VFR conditions are currently expected through the period. A south wind around 10kts at taf issuance will veer to the southwest and gust up to 25kts around 21z then shift to the northwest and gust up to 30kts by 00z. For tonight through Wednesday morning northwest winds gusting up to 30kts will continue. Stratus and sub VFR cigs are possible in the 08z-12z timeframe. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for KSZ041. CO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ254. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...AW AVIATION...99