298 
FXUS63 KSGF 192028
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
328 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...Key Messages:
1. Isolated showers and non-severe thunderstorms Wednesday. 
2. Cooler Thursday, then warming to highs in the mid to upper 70s 
early next week.
3. Next chance for rain and thunderstorms this weekend into early 
next week. Some heavy rain potential exists.
...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

Breezy winds and dry conditions will persist into this evening.
Tonight will be warmer than last night by several degrees as the
airmass will be warmer and surface winds will be stronger.

A cold front will move through the region Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected
along the front, mainly along and east of Highway 65. Dry air will
limit coverage and precip amounts, but could see a stronger 
updraft or two capable of gusty winds mainly across portions of 
central MO. 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

Following the cold front, temperatures will be be closer to normal
Wednesday night through Friday with lows in the 40s and highs in
the mid 60s to low 70s.

Overall expect the area to increasingly come under the influence
of upper ridging through at least early next week, leading to
warming conditions. By early next week, even the 25th percentile 
temperature guidance from the NBM is above normal, so confidence 
is increasing in well above normal temperatures with highs in the
mid 70s to around 80 Sunday through Tuesday.

Precip chances are trending higher Saturday into early Monday as a
couple of shortwaves are modeled to move through the region. 
Exact details remain unclear, but at this time the best chances 
will be across the northern CWA. Could see some heavy rainfall, 
but not seeing indications of widespread flooding at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

Breezy southerly winds and overnight LLWS are the primary concerns
through this TAF period. 

Isolated showers will be possible across the area Wednesday, but
coverage and intensity will be limited.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus