187 
FXUS63 KFGF 192028
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
328 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

Impacts in the short term will be rain across the southern valley
Wednesday with good agreement on placement as low pressure system
slides across Nebraska and South Dakota into Iowa and Minnesota.
The pressure gradient will of the low to the south and Canadian
high pressure to the north will keep wind speeds up overnight with
gradual clearing pushing into the northern valley. Temps overnight
will range from upper 20s to low 40s. Given the track of the sfc
low the northern fringe of the precip shield will bring rain to 
the southern valley with a sharp gradient on the northern edge 
expected with dry air entraining into the system from the north. 
12Z HREF probability matched means indicate less than a tenth of 
an inch for areas along and south of a Lisbon to Wahpeton to 
Fergus Falls to Wadena line with higher amounts confined to Grant 
Co MN where 0.50 to 0.75" is likely. Temps tomorrow will be cool 
again with highs in the 40s even with some sun in the northern 
valley. Winds will again be breezy with northerly gusts of 30 to 
35 mph as tight pressure gradient persists. Skies will clear and
winds relax tomorrow night with temps falling into the 20s as the
sfc high axis moves over eastern ND overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

The wide influence of an upper trough within southern ON into the 
Great Lakes region is expected to move east late this week. Rising 
heights are expected in the wake of the departing upper trough, but 
not before being gifted with a backdoor cold front continuing 
seasonably cool temperatures with lows dipping into the 20s. 
Eventually warmer air aloft is expected to start encroaching the 
region pushed by southwesterly flow getting into late this weekend 
and early next week. While temperatures should be on the increasing 
trend into next week, it is unclear how much warmth will be drawn 
in. Ensemble spread also increases into early next week, even 
showing differing variation of upper pattern. Variations in timing 
and amplification of trough/ridge pattern into early next week 
results in this spread, although there is a general trend for 
increased precipitation next week, as well as potential for above 
seasonal average temps. But again, spread is high and confidence is 
low in details with next week's forecast.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

MVFR CIGs overspreading the area and north winds will continue to
gust up to 30kts this afternoon. MVFR CIGs expected to persist
into the overnight. Some improvement is expected tomorrow morning
with less wind also set for Wednesday.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...CJ
AVIATION...JK