644 FXUS62 KILM 191935 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 335 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure continues to move eastward, and temperatures slowly start to warm over the next few days. Forecast stays dry until Friday, where a cold front approaches the area, though confidence on rain chances is decreasing. After the front passes, expect cooler temperatures again by this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Upper trough will continue to rotate eastward and offshore overnight; NW flow being accompanied by slight mid-level ridging by Wednesday afternoon. Good radiational cooling tonight should allow overnight lows to reach the upper 40s inland with 50 or low 50s along the coast. A patch of thin cirrus is expected to pass overhead between 06Z and 12Z, but this is not likely to influence lows significantly. Have maintained consistency with the NAM's recent performance and lowered temps in our typical cold spots. Slightly above our normal high temperatures on Wednesday with highs near 80 and lower 80s inland. Surface high pressure continues to sit overhead tonight through tomorrow night bringing quiet weather. The mid-level ridging and progressively zonal flow is responsible for the quick warmup. Dry both days with little to no moisture recovery until later in the week. Lows on Thursday morning slightly warmer again with low to mid 50s expected. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... High pressure remains offshore, and return flow continues for the Carolinas, with highs in the low 80s Thursday. Expecting some cumulus and cirrus clouds, but no rain chances to worry about. Air gets increasingly muggy, as southerly flow begins to surge ahead of a cold front. Lows are noticeably warmer Thursday night, only bottoming out in the low-to-mid 60s. Friday, another cold front ejects out of Appalachia and races towards the coast. Forecast continues to dry out more with each update. There remains some isentropic lift with this system, but it's weak, with only a weak window in the 300-305K layer. Moisture increases in the lower levels, but forecast soundings show plenty of dry air in the 700-500mb column. Still keeping in the rain chances for Friday, but have knocked them down a bit. Wouldn't be surprised if this trend continues. Highs Friday near 80. Front is offshore by Friday night, and cooler air comes back into the fold. Lows in the upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mostly dry and quiet long term forecast, with high pressure dominating aloft and at the surface. Highs in the upper 70s over the weekend, with lows in the mid 50s. Airmass starts to modify a little bit by the beginning of next week, with some return flow setting up, and highs may inch closer to 80. Lots of uncertainty by Tuesday, as the GFS and CMC models show a low quickly moving from the Ohio River Valley to offshore of the mid-Atlantic states. Keeping the official forecast dry for now, but this may change in subsequent updates. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR through the forecast period. Light onshore flow this afternoon will become calm this evening as we decouple. Some ground fog possible briefly near sunrise. Extended Outlook...VFR, except for a low chance of ceiling or visibility restrictions in convective showers Friday into Friday night. && .MARINE... Through Wednesday Night...High pressure will maintain calm seas around 1-2 feet tonight and Wednesday. Winds out of the NW and W tomorrow with slight enhancement during the afternoon: gusts around 15 knots due to the mixing near the coast. Calming on Wednesday night, seas maintain 1-2 feet overnight. Thursday through Sunday...Southwesterly flow at 10kts increases to 10-15kts by Thursday night, as a cold front approaches. Front moves over the waters by Friday night, where a few gusts up to 20kts are possible. After frontal passage, winds veer northerly by Saturday, decreasing slightly to 10kts. Winds become more variable by Sunday. Seas 1-2ft increase to 2-3ft by Thursday night, lingering through Saturday morning. By Saturday afternoon through Sunday, seas drop back down to 1-2ft. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...21 SHORT TERM...IGB LONG TERM...IGB AVIATION...43 MARINE...IGB/21