483 FXUS64 KSJT 191914 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 214 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 205 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Quiet weather will continue across the area through Wednesday, with slightly above normal temperatures. Some low clouds will spread north across the southern half of the area towards daybreak and should linger through mid to late morning before scattering out. Otherwise, the only other feature to mention is a weak front that will move into the Big Country tomorrow and is expected to stall around the I-20 corridor. The front will have negligible effects on the weather, other than a weak wind shift to the north behind it. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s, with highs tomorrow in the low to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 206 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 As the surface low moves out of the Intermountain West and into the North Central Plains, a cold front will drop south into our area overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Models are in disagreement over how far south this front goes with the GFS bringing it into the northern Big Country before stalling out while the ECMWF drops it as far as the Concho Valley before it stalls out and becomes largely diffuse. Either way, the front looks to be weak and dry by the time it makes it to our area so don't expect much temperature or dew point relief. As the upper level trough associated with the low continues to move east with the low, a quick shortwave will pass over our area providing slight chances for some showers and potentially some thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday morning. As of right now, we have mainly confined the PoPs to the eastern Big Country but with more model runs that may need to be adjusted. These are expected to stay well below severe limits. Temperatures are expected to gradually warm into the 80s through the week. The aforementioned cold front might cool the Big Country by a couple degrees but temperatures should still linger in the 80s. By the weekend, temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s across the area. Lows will warm from the upper 50s to low 60s earlier in the week to low to mid 60s over the weekend. Continued southerly surface flow ushering in some warm, moist gulf flow can be thanked. After the chances for storms Friday morning, the long term looks warm and dry as upper level ridging takes over as the predominant weather driver. Looking out past the extended, both long term global models are hinting at a large and strong upper level trough digging it's way into the southern plains by mid-next week. This could be the next big weather maker for the area. We will continue to keep our eyes on this as it is still a long ways out. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1252 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals through much of tonight. Stratus is expected to develop across the Texas Hill Country late tonight and spread north across the southern terminals after 10Z. Will introduce MVFR ceilings this forecast cycle. Otherwise, expect south to southwest winds gusting between 20 and 25 knots this afternoon, diminishing this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 62 85 60 84 / 0 5 10 5 San Angelo 60 85 61 86 / 0 5 5 5 Junction 62 86 60 87 / 0 0 5 5 Brownwood 60 85 60 85 / 0 0 5 5 Sweetwater 62 85 60 84 / 0 5 5 5 Ozona 62 83 62 84 / 0 5 5 5 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...24