497 FXUS62 KMFL 191838 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 238 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 .SHORT TERM... Tonight through Wednesday: High pressure lingers at the surface in wake of the front permitting a breezy northerly to northeasterly flow to persist. Drier air will allow for the short term period to remain generally dry. As the high pressure build through mid-week, it will keep the richer moisture to the south and allow for the wind to remain easterly. Some portions of South Florida could warm a degree or two compared to previous days but in general the taste of dry season should remain across the region. Gusty winds are possible over the eastern portions of the peninsula but friction should help reduce wind speeds inland and across Southwest Florida. .LONG TERM... Wednesday Night Through Monday: A relatively dry and pleasant airmass will continue to be with us at the start of the extended period as upper-level ridging remains established over South Florida. However, the pattern of drier weather and comfortable dewpoints will be short lived as a series of synoptic changes will allow for a wetter and more humid pattern to prevail as we progress through this week. The aforementioned upper level ridge established over South Florida will begin to weaken and push eastward into the Atlantic Ocean in response to an upper level trough advecting eastward across the Great Lakes and northern United States. The influence of the upper level trough across the region will shift the previous zonal and progressive flow aloft to a more southerly direction, acting to moisten up the mid levels and mix out the residual dry air in this portion of the atmospheric column. At the same time, a surface ridge of high pressure just offshore of the southeastern United States will continue to pull to the northeast away from the region. Easterly flow on the periphery of the departing ridge of high pressure will continue the gradual moistening and modifying of the airmass in the lower levels over South Florida.The departure of both of these features will allow for the gradual moistening of the vertical column through the end of the week and an increase in rain chances as we transition into a wet and humid pattern by late this week into this weekend. The resurgence of deep tropical moisture across the region continues this weekend as model guidance hints at precipitable water values approaching upwards of 2.0 inches beginning on Saturday. A weak surface frontal boundary associated with the upper level trough pushing off of the northeastern United States will slowly progress southwards across the Florida Peninsula during the day on Saturday before stalling just to the north of Lake Okeechobee as a stationary front. Given the placement of South Florida in the warm and wet sector to the south of this boundary, heavy rain and soggy conditions are possible across all of South Florida. As prevailing flow remains easterly to the south of the boundary, the greatest chances for shower and thunderstorm activity during the day will remain across the interior and Gulf coast as activity develops and pushes westward. Given the relatively "warm" sea surface temperatures across the nearshore and offshore waters this time of year, shower and thunderstorm activity may develop across the offshore Atlantic waters overnight and move onshore along the Atlantic coast during the overnight and early morning hours. Although soils have dried out across South Florida recently due to the lack of substantial rainfall in the past week, localized flooding will be possible late this week into the upcoming weekend, especially if repeated rounds of heavy rainfall occur over the same location. Prevailing easterly flow will keep maximum temperatures across the Atlantic coast in the middle 80s with upper 80s across portions of the interior and the Gulf coast. Minimum temperatures will range from the mid 70s along the Atlantic coast and eastern interior to the lower 70s across the western interior and Gulf coast. && .AVIATION(18Z TAFS)... VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Easterly to northeasterly wind flow will increase by mid-morning across all terminals. These winds will diminish once again this evening and pick up once more on Wednesday morning. && .MARINE... High pressure lingers at the surface in wake of the front permitting a breezy northerly to northeasterly flow to persist. Drier air will allow for the short term period to remain generally dry. As the high pressure build through mid-week, it will keep the richer moisture to the south and allow for the wind to remain easterly. Some portions of South Florida could warm a degree or two compared to previous days but in general the taste of dry season should remain across the region. Gusty winds are possible over the eastern portions of the peninsula but friction should help reduce wind speeds inland and across Southwest Florida. && .BEACHES... With the breezy northeast to east flow remaining in place, a high risk of rip currents will persist across the Atlantic Coast beaches throughout much of the work week. As the next full moon cycle approaches, the persistent easterly flow may also lead to higher than predicted tide levels over the Atlantic Coast towards the middle of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 75 86 75 87 / 10 10 20 40 West Kendall 72 87 73 88 / 10 10 20 40 Opa-Locka 73 86 75 87 / 10 10 20 40 Homestead 73 85 74 86 / 10 10 30 40 Fort Lauderdale 75 85 76 86 / 10 10 20 30 N Ft Lauderdale 75 85 76 86 / 10 10 20 30 Pembroke Pines 73 85 74 87 / 10 10 20 30 West Palm Beach 73 85 74 86 / 10 10 10 30 Boca Raton 75 85 75 86 / 10 10 20 30 Naples 69 88 70 89 / 0 10 10 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ Tonight/Wednesday and Aviation/Marine...RAG Wednesday Night through Tuesday...Hadi Visit us at weather.gov/miami Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwsmiami www.twitter.com/nwsmiami