440 FXUS61 KALY 191743 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 143 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to bring dry weather into early Thursday with a gradual warming trend. Our next system will move across the region late Thursday into Friday with a round of rain showers. Cooler air then returns for the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... .UPDATE...As of 1240 PM EDT, upper-level ridging and surface high pressure will continue to build across the region this afternoon with partly to mostly sunny and dry conditions continuing. As expected, winds have picked up out of the west to northwest with gusts mainly in the 25-35 mph range. Highs are on track to reach the 50s in the higher elevations to the lower to mid- 60s in the valleys. With a light westerly breeze continuing into the nighttime hours under variable cloudiness, low temperatures will not be as low as this morning with values in the lower 50s along the valleys (40s higher elevations). && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... On Wednesday, the H500 heights deamplify or flatten out over the region. Isobars are expected to loosen some as the aforementioned upper low moves further away from the region. Additionally, mixing/Xfer momentum heights are not expected to rise as high as on Tuesday. As a result, winds could be breezy at times on Wednesday, just not as breezy as on Tuesday. Expect for west-northwest winds to range between 5-10 kts with gusts as high as 20-25 kts. Again, the favored areas of the highest wind speeds/gusts will be from the Mohawk Valley into the Capital District into the Berkshires. It will be another dry and tranquil day under mostly skies amid flat ridging overhead. West winds will continue to advect in warmer air into the region. That said, expect for temperatures to be unseasonably warm with high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s along the valleys (upper 50s to lower 60s over the higher elevations). Overnight low temperatures Wednesday night will be mild as well with values in the upper 40s to lower 50s. On Thursday, a 1008 hpa mid-latitude cyclone will be approaching from the Central U.S. Winds will shift out of the south ahead of the storm system. With the cold front associated with the storm system still west of the area Thursday afternoon, it should be another unseasonably warm day with high temperatures forecast to climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s (upper 50s to lower 60s higher elevations). As clouds thicken and lower in elevation, rain showers will overspread the region from northwest to southeast Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Thursday night looks to be the timeframe where the rain will be most widespread over the area. Rain rates and QPF values alike look to be light. QPF totals by Friday morning are forecast to range between one to three tenths of an inch. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... On Friday, our region will be located in the wake of a surface frontal boundary but still downstream of an approaching upper level trough over the Great Lakes. West-southwest flow will dominate at all levels ahead of the advancing upper level energy. It should be dry, as we will be caught between the best forcing. While temps will be somewhat cooler and less humid than Thursday, there won't be a large drop in temps, as the cooler temps will still be located off to the west. Daytime temps should reach the mid to upper 60s for valley areas, with 50s for the hills and mountains. Over the weekend, the large upper level trough will be moving towards the Northeast. Despite that the core of the upper level low may still remain just to our north, there will be significantly lower height/temps aloft that will make for much cooler temps for the weekend. Daytime temps will only be in the 40s and 50s, with 30s at night. Some models continue to show a wave of low pressure developing along the front offshore, which could be close enough to bring some light rain to the region. However, some models continue to show this far enough offshore, so will keep POPs fairly low at this time. Even without the coastal wave, some showers will be possible over the weekend, thanks to the cyclonic flow in place. This will be especially true for areas north/west of the Capital Region, as some lake-enhancement will be possible. With the much cooler temps aloft, can't rule out some wet snowflakes mixing across the western Adirondacks at times as well. Skies should be fairly cloudy through the weekend thanks to the cyclonic flow and cool temps aloft. For early next week, temps will continue to be chilly, as the upper level low slowly departs off to the east. The threat for instability/cyclonic flow showers should diminish, with skies becoming partly to mostly clear. Daytime temps will continue to be in the mid 40s to mid 50s, with overnight lows ranging from the upper 20s to mid 30s. This will allow for a widespread frost for most areas, with a freeze possible as well. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Areas of midlevel (VFR) stratus exist from the I-90 corridor northward, modulated by mountain waves. This pocket of moisture will move off to the east in concert with a midlevel trough, with VFR conditions persisting past sunset. Some lower (MVFR) stratus may develop late tonight due to warm advection aloft causing an inversion and some moisture advection below the inversion. These stratus will likely impact KPSF and possibly KALB. No fog issues are anticipated due to a healthy pressure gradient being maintained between departing low pressure to the northeast and building high pressure to the southwest. Any stratus should mix out by late morning/early afternoon Wednesday, with VFR conditions continuing. Winds will remain gusty from the west for the remainder of the daylight hours, with gusts of 25-30 kt likely to continue at KALB/KPSF and possibly a couple of gusts to 20 kt at KPOU. Flow is blocked at KGFL, so winds have been more southerly. Low level wind shear will be a concern here through the night unless the winds turn westerly for a time. Winds will diminish to 5 to 10 kt after sunset. Outlook... Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... Fire weather issues are not expected over the next few days. Today and Wednesday will feature dry and breezy weather conditions. Temperatures will continue to warm up from near seasonable levels today to warmer than normal levels Wednesday and Thursday. The weather pattern is then expected to become more unsettled Thursday into the weekend with periods of rain showers. Temperatures are expected to undergo a cool down Thursday into the weekend with values returning to cooler than normal levels Sunday into early next week. Minimum relative humidity (RH) values today will range from 40-60% with the lowest values located over the mid-Hudson Valley. Tonight, max RH values will range between 85-100%. On Wednesday, minimum relative humidity values will range from 45-75%. Wednesday night, max relative humidity values will range from 85-100%. On Thursday, minimum relative humidity values will range between 50-75%. Winds today will be out of the west-northwest 10-15 kts with gusts ranging between 20-30 kts. The highest gusts will be located along a corridor from the Mohawk Valley, into the Capital District and into the Berkshires of western Massachusetts. Westerly winds will abate tonight at 5-10 kts with gusts as high as 15-20 kts (greatest values over the higher terrain). On Wednesday, west-northwest winds will range from 5-15 kts with gusts between 20-25 kts. Again, the favored corridor of highest wind gust speeds will be from the Mohawk Valley into the Capital District into the Berkshires. Wednesday night, winds will subside become very light to calm with magnitudes less than 5 kts. On Thursday, a southerly wind component will develop with magnitudes between 5-15 kts. Winds could gust as high as 20 kts (most favored over the Capital District). && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrological issues or concerns are expected over the next five to seven days. Today and Wednesday will feature dry and breezy weather conditions. The weather pattern is then expected to become more unsettled Thursday into the weekend with periods of rain showers. Precipitation rates are expected to be light overall through the period. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Rathbun NEAR TERM...Evbuoma/Rathbun SHORT TERM...Evbuoma LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Thompson FIRE WEATHER...Evbuoma HYDROLOGY...Evbuoma