851 FXUS61 KBGM 191729 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 129 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonably warm and dry conditions continue into Wednesday. However, later in the day Thursday, a cold front will bring rain showers and possibly a few thunderstorms to the region. Colder air behind the front will push in Thursday night and into the end of the week. Temperatures will be closer to seasonal by the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 130 pm update... Main concerns in the near term remain focused on the warming temperatures and the timing/onset of rain arriving Wednesday night. The near term weather will be mostly defined by an area of high pressure that is currently moving in from the west. The ridge axis is situated over the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes this afternoon and will induce large scale suppression over the Northeast the rest of today, tonight and most of the day Wednesday. There remains a thin layer of lake induced stratus from around the Oswego/Oneida County area southeast into the northern Catskills, but the trend in the past 2-4 hours has been to erode this cloud cover with the drier air moving in. Skies will likely remain clear tonight. An axis of warmer air will also move in with the ridge tonight and allow for a more milder night. Temperatures will still be able to drop down into the mid 40s to mid 50s, but roughly 10 deg warmer than last night. There is a low chance of fog formation, due to the potential for strong radiational cooling, but the air mass should be dry enough and the winds should keep the near sfc layer well mixed enough to inhibit widespread fog. Cannot rule out patches of fog here and there where sheltered valleys become decoupled from boundary layer under a sharp inversion. Wednesday will start out warmer than today...and the combination of continued warm air advection and plenty of sun during the morning should lead to temperature into the upper 60s and lower 70s by the early afternoon. The upper ridge is expected to broaden out during the day which may delay the onset of increased cloud cover and the approaching low pressure system in the middle of the country. Afternoon strato-cumulus is likely on Wed, and thicker clouds are expected after midnight and late Wed night. The approaching low pressure system is expected to make it to near Lake Michigan by early Thur morning and a warm front extending to the east into NY/PA/ern Great Lakes could trigger a few rain showers before sunrise. However the bulk of the precip will not arrive until later in the day. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 400 AM Update... A Great-Lakes-to-Saint-Lawrence low will drop a cold front across the region Thursday afternoon and evening, with showers and perhaps a little embedded thunder. For Wednesday night, fairly mild conditions are anticipated with increasing clouds courtesy of warm air advection from southwesterly flow ahead of that low. The Catskills may still get into the mid 40s for lows, with a longer period of radiational cooling before clouds arrive. Otherwise upper 40s to mid 50s are anticipated for our region. Models depict a well-marked wave pivoting through Lower Michigan early Thursday, around broader cyclonic flow centered near James Bay. The wave takes on a negative tilt, with associated surface low somewhat deepening while tracking through the eastern Great Lakes and down the St. Lawrence Thursday afternoon through evening. In addition the low itself, this will drop a cold front through our region during that time. Showers will likely result, especially in Central New York closer to the low track. A few tenths of an inch will be possible there. Weak yet present instability may be enough for a few embedded thunderstorms as well. With our area spending most of the day in the warm sector under southwesterly winds, highs will be a good 9-12 degrees above average; in the mid 60s- lower 70s. Moisture depth goes shallow behind the upper wave later Thursday night, with showers diminishing/becoming spotty and light. Despite the beginning of post-frontal cool air advection, clouds and moisture will hold lows into the upper 40s-lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 400 AM Update... Details are sketchy, but there is confidence in the bigger picture for a chilly weekend. Large upper level low pressure from near James Bay, is projected to wobble around Quebec-Eastern Canada. This will keep our region under the broad cyclonic flow around that low, making for chilly conditions especially over the weekend with highs of upper 40s-upper 50s. Forecast lows are 30s-lower 40s. Around the low, there will be multiple spokes/disturbances rotating around which may cause showers. Additionally, surface low pressure edging up the East Coast could present additional moisture for a few showers. In summary, the weekend will not be a washout by any means, but it will be cool and perhaps blustery with scattered showers. Wet snowflakes could mix in at higher elevations/nighttime periods. The spotty showers could bleed a little into Monday, since cutoff lows are notorious for taking longer-than-expected to get fully out of the region. However, Canadian high pressure is currently projected by operational models to drop into the area Monday, which could also dry things out by then. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... All terminals are expected to remain VFR throughout the period as high pressure dominates the region. There is a low chance that fog will develop at ELM tomorrow morning with periods of IFR vsbys but confidence is still too low to include at this time. Winds should keep conditions well mixed and the air mass could be too dry for widespread/persistent fog. West winds this afternoon are gusting 15 to 20 kt but should pull back to 10 kt or less after 00-02Z this evening. Winds will pick up again out of the w/nw after 14Z Wed. Low-level wind shear is expected at all terminals from around 01Z to 12Z Wed. Outlook... Wednesday afternoon and Wed night...Mainly VFR but with clouds thickening overnight. Thursday and Friday...Flight restrictions likely due to the next round of rain showers starting by Thursday afternoon. Saturday...Possible restrictions from lake effect showers but mainly VFR. Sunday...VFR conditions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJT NEAR TERM...BJT SHORT TERM...MDP LONG TERM...MDP AVIATION...BTL/BJT