717 FXUS65 KABQ 191708 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1108 AM MDT Tue Oct 19 2021 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE A strong jet max that brought strong winds atop mountain peaks this morning has backed off in speed while also expanding down to lower elevations. Westerly winds of 15-30kts with gusts up to 45kts can be expected across many terminals but the strongest wind speeds will focus over the eastern plains. Winds taper off through the late afternoon becoming light and variable with terrain driven drainage winds after midnight. Meanwhile field of sct-bkn skies along and west of the central mtn chain will gradually clear out through the early afternoon. 24 && .PREV DISCUSSION...306 AM MDT Tue Oct 19 2021... .SYNOPSIS... Southwest winds will become breezy again today along and east of the central mountain chain, where gusts will generally reach 30 to 40 mph. In addition, high temperatures will trend a few to 14 degrees cooler than yesterday as a disturbance passes to the north of New Mexico. Scattered to isolated rain and mountain snow showers will occur this morning around Dulce and Chama. Winds will weaken and temperatures will rise above normal areawide during the latter half of the work week. Southwest winds will become breezy again this weekend, then potentially windy early next week. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... Water vapor imagery early this morning shows a tightly wound upper low over eastern UT moving northeast into northwest CO. Strong jet energy in the base of this storm system is forcing impressive wave clouds over much of NM and CO. Surface winds are increasing ahead of a Pacific cold front moving slowly eastward into western NM. Gusts will approach 50kt for a few hours this morning over the northern high terrain however grid coverage is limited to above 10kft. The coverage of rain/snow is farther south than earlier model guidance with several areas around the Four Corners picking up very light measurable precip. This area of rain/snow will continue moving east into the Tusas Mts and far northern Sangre de Cristos early this morning. Southwest winds will veer to the west then northwest across the region today with gusts of 30-40 mph expected from the central mt chain eastward. Surface high pressure will build into NM tonight with dry air and lighter winds. Low temps will trend several degrees cooler under clear skies. Wednesday will trend a few degrees warmer again with sunny skies, low humidity, and slight breezes over the high plains of eastern NM. Guyer LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... A low amplitude ridge of high pressure will continue crossing during the latter half of the work week with dry weather and above normal temperatures. Highs will peak from a few to around 10 degrees above normal Friday, and up to 15 degrees above normal over eastern areas Saturday. Winds will generally be light until Saturday, when southwest flow aloft will strengthen as a dry upper level trough crosses the southern Rockies and a surface low develops over southeast CO. Southwest surface wind gusts may reach 35 mph along and east of the central mountain chain Saturday afternoon. Winds should continue to strengthen areawide early in the coming work week as a deeper upper level trough carves its way through the western US. The potential exists for widespread strong winds across the forecast area Monday afternoon and night. 44 && .FIRE WEATHER... Marginal critical fire wx will develop again over northeast NM for a few hours this afternoon. Cooler, dry, and breezy conditions will continue elsewhere across NM. A quasi-zonal pattern will take shape Wednesday and Thursday with warming temps and low humidity. A ridge of high pressure will crest over the area Friday then break down quickly Saturday. Above normal temps, low humidity, and stronger west winds will allow marginal critical fire wx to return to eastern NM Saturday and Sunday. Winds will increase even more by Monday with widespread windy conditions ahead of a potentially significant storm system across the western U.S. next week. Guyer && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$