187 FXUS62 KILM 191604 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1204 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Cool, dry Canadian air will remain across the Carolinas for the next couple of days as high pressure slowly moves eastward. As the high moves offshore Wednesday, winds will shift southwesterly and temperatures will rebound above normal. Cooler temperatures will return next weekend as another cold front passes offshore early Saturday. && .UPDATE... No significant changes with this update. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Surface high to the west this morning will slowly shift southeast this afternoon. High becomes elongated west to east tonight, eventually slipping offshore Wed. Aloft the flow will flatten somewhat, although mid-level winds will maintain a northwest component. Lack of any moisture return through Wed will keep skies clear and rule out any rain chances. Highs this afternoon will be a degree or 2 warmer than yesterday as the air mass modifies. Warm advection really starts in earnest tonight, continuing Wed. This will bump Tue night lows near to slightly above normal and push highs Wed well above normal. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... With high pressure offshore and a mid level zonal flow temperatures will be on the warm side for the mid to late week period. A weakening mid level trough well off to the north will bring a front into the region later Friday but guidance has trended drier and weaker with the system. The modest pops remain in the forecast late in the period. As previously mentioned expect very warm temperatures with readings nearing ten degrees above normal for highs and lows. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Expect dry and warm conditions to continue for the weekend and into early next week. The mid level flow will be essentially zonal once again with ridging building on from the southwest early next week. Temperatures will trend a little more toward normal averaging around five degrees or so on the warm side. && .AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR through Tonight. Light and variable winds this morning will become onshore at coastal sites in the afternoon. Calm winds return in the evening. Ground fog is possible toward morning. Extended Outlook...VFR, except for a low chance of ceiling or visibility restrictions in convective showers Friday into Friday night. && .MARINE... Through Wednesday... Weak high pressure to the west will elongate and shift east tonight, moving offshore Wed. Gradient remains ill-defined with light and variable winds in the morning becoming onshore as weak sea breeze develops this afternoon. Speeds 10 kt or less in the afternoon, becoming southwest this evening as the high moves east. Southwest flow becomes more defined Wed with the high offshore, speeds increase to around 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas will be 2 ft or less, a mix of a northerly wind wave and easterly swell. Wednesday Night through Saturday... A southwest flow of 10-15 knots will be in place the first couple of days of the forecast with an approaching front and high pressure offshore. The front moves across for the weekend but lacks any significant cold air advection and an offshore flow of 10-15 knots will develop. Significant seas will be mostly 2-3 feet through the period. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...21 NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...43 MARINE...III/SHK