011 FXUS63 KJKL 191428 CCA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1028 AM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 1020 AM EDT TUE OCT 19 2021 Forecast is on track this morning. Morning valley fog has lifted into some patchy stratus in places, which will continue to dissipate as moisture mixes out of the boundary layer. Went ahead and removed morning fog from the zones and updated the hourly grids (T/Td) to bring them more in line with current observations. CLouds will be on the increase from the west later today as a band of high/mid level clouds transit the region. These clouds will continue to push off to the east and exit eastern Kentucky through the evening. Clearing will set us up for another seasonably chilly night. UPDATE Issued at 652 AM EDT TUE OCT 19 2021 The only update is to blend early morning observed temperatures into the forecast. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 340 AM EDT TUE OCT 19 2021 Sprawling high pressure over the southeast CONUS and ridging aloft over the region will bring dry, quiet conditions in the short term period. A few high clouds may spill over the crest of the ridge at times, but will not be significant. Temperatures could be just cold enough for patchy frost in the coldest valleys early this morning, but the presence of fog in valleys will help to mitigate the threat in many of the normally coldest locations. Near neutral temperature advection will allow sunshine to bring slightly warmer temperatures each day. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 410 AM EDT TUE OCT 19 2021 Our stretch of dry and mild weather will come to an end on Thursday with the arrival of showery cold front. Cooler temperatures follow the front on Friday into Saturday. A few light showers cannot be ruled out later Friday into Friday night across northern locations. Better chances for rain are expected with another frontal boundary on Sunday and Monday. The latest model suite shows an ~559 dam closed low and ~1007 mb surface reflection located west and north of Des Moines, IA by 00z Thursday. An associated cold front will arc SE to near Davenport, IA and then SW to over north central Texas. The low will move eastward to over the Great Lakes on Thursday and then into Canadian Maritimes on Friday. In the process, the system’s cold front will be dragged across eastern Kentucky Thursday afternoon and night. Behind the front, upper level troughing will linger across the Northeast and Ohio Valley on Friday and Saturday. An embedded upper level disturbance and decaying secondary surface cold front brushes the Commonwealth later Friday into Friday night with a modest moisture increase. From Sunday onward, model spread increases dramatically, resulting in a low confidence forecast for early next week. With that being said, a front will likely develop over or lift into the Ohio Valley on Sunday before its evolution becomes a mystery by Monday. In sensible terms, clouds increase Wednesday night ahead of the approaching cold front. This will keep minimum temperatures milder than recent nights, mainly in the lower to middle 50s. By sunrise Thursday, expect showers out ahead of the front to be on our western doorstep. That activity will move eastward through the morning and will likely be followed by a more organized line of convection along the cold front. Though there is still some uncertainty, the favored window for the frontal passage is between 20z Thursday and 07z Friday. A tightening pressure gradient will also lead to blustery southwest winds gusting 15 to 20 mph ahead of the front. Model soundings show enough instability for a few rumbles of thunder. Widespread cloud cover and rainfall will keep maximum temperatures cooler, mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Rainfall amounts will remain light, generally under 0.25" outside of thunderstorms. Cooler air will filter in behind the front Thursday night, dropping temperatures into the upper 40s to lower 50s by sunrise. A passing disturbance will bring more clouds than sun on Friday. The disturbance and southward settling secondary front will bring light shower chances to areas near and north of the Mtn. Pkwy. later Friday into Friday night. Mainly dry conditions and at least partial sun follow for Saturday before clouds and shower chances increase again late Saturday Night and Sunday with the next frontal boundary. Those rain chances will likely last through Monday but the specifics remain obscure due to the lack of model agreement. Temperature-wise, Friday looks to remain on the cool side of normal with highs mainly in the lower to middle 60s. A few degrees of moderation towards normal can be expected for Saturday. Nighttime lows should remain in the 40s through Saturday night. The temperature forecast for Sunday and beyond strongly depends on the evolution of the next frontal system. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT TUE OCT 19 2021 Fog will affect the deeper valleys during late night and early morning hours, but it should have little or no impact at TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. Winds will average 5 kts or less through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RAY SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...GEERTSON AVIATION...HAL