946 FXUS61 KCLE 191300 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 900 AM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will persist over the area through Wednesday, followed by a low pressure system and cold front on Thursday. A trough may linger across the area into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Quiet weather is expected through Wednesday as high pressure persists across the region. Above-average temperatures in the lower 70s are forecast for today and on Wednesday as the ridge continues to build, resulting in pleasant weather conditions under mostly sunny skies. Low temperatures will drop into mid to upper 40s tonight under mostly clear skies and light winds. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Quick moving upper trough axis/surface frontal system tandem to push in Wednesday night, first with some warm sector upper level driven shower potential over the western zones of the CWA. Carrying a low chance of thunder with this, better chances after sunrise, but overall confidence in the thunder aspect is on the lower side right now. Could be a struggle to get the necessary instability off the boundary layer, but have some speed shear in the column. System makes a speedy exit towards Atlantic Canada, but will pull another cold front through Thursday night after the first one passes Thursday afternoon. Another weak trough axis passes just south of Lake Erie Friday, and another Friday night slightly stronger, so the POP forecast is tough to clear for any length of time in the short term. Add on top of that a renewed fetch off Lake Erie in parallel low level northwesterly flow and there will be additional chances from lake effect north the far eastern zones. Outside of thunder downpours from the first part of the short term, the QPF in the forecast overall is on the lower side. Meanwhile, a chillier airmass settles into the region. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Likely to get another cold front dropping in across the southern lakes Saturday, and possibly late Saturday night, but the details of the evolution of the closed upper low over eastern Canada seem to be in flux for right now. Do not want to get too hung up in the details, but the overall theme remains the same, that a fall like airmass will dominate the region in the extended forecast with some low impact shower activity with the fronts, or possibly lake effect in the primarily northwesterly low level flow. Expecting high temperatures in the 50s only, with some upper 30s for overnight lows. Will be watching for the first frost of the season, but may have a hard time clearing out the sky enough. Again, details need to sort themselves out in coming model runs. && .AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... VFR conditions across the TAF sites with VFR to persist through the TAF period. Light southwesterly winds will persist through the morning, before increasing to around 10 knots later this afternoon. The highest winds will be at ERI with gusts near 20 knots. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers Wednesday night into Thursday. Non-VFR likely in lower ceilings Thursday night into Friday. Non-VFR may persist Friday into Saturday with lower ceilings. && .MARINE... High pressure to our south will drift eastward towards the SE coast, while low pressure strengthens over the central plains pushing into the southern Great Lakes. The result is a quick turn around in windy conditions developing later today into tonight, southwest 15-20kts gusting to 25kts. Expecting wave heights to increase, and the eastern lake zones to become exposed to the longer fetch. Small Craft Advisory will be needed with wave heights Lake County to Erie County PA in the 3 to 5 foot range once again. Winds subside Wednesday afternoon before increasing again Thursday ahead of the next cold front. This passage will switch the wind to the northwest for an extended period into the weekend. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ147>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kahn NEAR TERM...Kahn/Saunders SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...Kahn MARINE...26