578 FXUS64 KSJT 191128 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 628 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 206 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 ...Warmer with continued dry weather today... Southwest flow aloft will continue today, with most of the mid/upper level clouds over the area this morning moving off to the east. That will leave us with mostly sunny skies. A deepening surface low will move east from eastern CO into western KS/NE, tightening the surface pressure gradient in west Texas, and keeping south winds gusty across our area. The southerly flow and mostly sunny skies will combine to keep the warming trend going today with highs getting into the mid 80s in some locations. Overnight lows will drop into the mid 50s to near 60 degrees as southerly surface winds persist through tonight. May see some low clouds develop late Tuesday night across the southern half of the area as persistent southerly flow increases low level moisture in our area. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 206 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 As the surface low moves out of the Intermountain West and into the North Central Plains, a cold front will drop south into our area overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Models are in disagreement over how far south this front goes with the GFS bringing it into the northern Big Country before stalling out while the ECMWF drops it as far as the Concho Valley before it stalls out and becomes largely diffuse. Either way, the front looks to be weak and dry by the time it makes it to our area so don't expect much temperature or dew point relief. As the upper level trough associated with the low continues to move east with the low, a quick shortwave will pass over our area providing slight chances for some showers and potentially some thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday morning. As of right now, we have mainly confined the PoPs to the eastern Big Country but with more model runs that may need to be adjusted. These are expected to stay well below severe limits. Temperatures are expected to gradually warm into the 80s through the week. The aforementioned cold front might cool the Big Country by a couple degrees but temperatures should still linger in the 80s. By the weekend, temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s across the area. Lows will warm from the upper 50s to low 60s earlier in the week to low to mid 60s over the weekend. Continued southerly surface flow ushering in some warm, moist gulf flow can be thanked. After the chances for storms Friday morning, the long term looks warm and dry as upper level ridging takes over as the predominant weather driver. Looking out past the extended, both long term global models are hinting at a large and strong upper level trough digging it's way into the southern plains by mid-next week. This could be the next big weather maker for the area. We will continue to keep our eyes on this as it is still a long ways out. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 628 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 VFR conditions currently affecting all sites with upper level clouds streaming over the area. Winds are out of the south at 5 to 10 knots for the most part. Winds will pick up to 10 to 15 knots, with gusts to as high as 25 knots later this morning out of the south to southwest. Will keep the mention of low clouds out of the southern TAFs for now with upper level clouds still impacting those areas. If these clouds clear before heating can get going, we may see a few SCT MVFR ceilings, but with low confidence in this occurring, will let future amendments address this. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 83 61 84 58 / 0 0 5 10 San Angelo 84 59 84 59 / 0 0 5 10 Junction 82 60 86 59 / 0 0 0 5 Brownwood 81 58 84 59 / 0 0 0 10 Sweetwater 85 61 84 58 / 0 0 5 10 Ozona 81 61 82 61 / 0 0 5 5 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...20