113 FXUS62 KMFL 191111 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 711 AM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 .AVIATION(12Z TAFS)... VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Easterly to northeasterly wind flow will increase by mid-morning across all terminals. These winds will diminish once again this evening and pick up once more on Wednesday morning. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 240 AM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021) SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)... An area of high pressure centered over the southeastern portion of the country will continue to dominate the weather pattern across South Florida for today and into Wednesday. As this area of high pressure continues to slowly move eastward, the pressure gradient across South Florida will remain tight through the middle of the week as what is left of a frontal boundary remains stalled out over the Florida Straits. This will allow for the breezy east to northeasterly flow to continue throughout this time frame. While most areas will remain dry, just enough lower level moisture remains in place to support the slight chance of a brief passing shower or two mainly over the Atlantic waters and east coast areas. High temperatures through the middle of the week will generally range from the lower to mid 80s across the east coast to around 90 over the western interior. LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Monday)... The long term will start off rather "dry" as a weak upper level ridge remains in control. At the surface, the moderate easterly fetch will continue across the region. With time, the modest upper level ridge will gradually begin to breakdown. A zonal/progressive upper level flow should remain in place through the workweek, however, an upper level trough will begin to take shape by late Thursday or Friday across the southeast U.S. This will help redirect our zonal flow to a slightly more moist southwest flow aloft, which should help advect the deeper tropical moisture back northward into our region with time. Rain chances will start low with the dry column and a very benign zonal flow in place, however, as the transition occurs and moisture begins to spread northward out of the tropics, rain chances will gradually increase going into the upcoming weekend. The easterly low level flow looks to prevail through the end of the forecast period, which will focus diurnally driven convection across the Gulf and interior during the day. During the overnight and morning the Atlantic Coast may experience some intermittent showers or storms as well. No major changes with forecast temperatures through the long term. Generally, climo (mid/upper 80s) expected with the warmest across the Gulf and interior as the persistent easterly low level flow continues. MARINE... A breezy east to northeasterly flow will continue across the Atlantic and Gulf coastal waters through the middle of the week. This will allow for the wave heights especially across the Atlantic waters to remain elevated during this time frame. Winds and seas will slowly begin to subside during the later portion of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase later in the week as well. BEACHES... With the breezy east to northeasterly flow remaining in place, a high risk of rip currents will persist across the Atlantic Coast beaches throughout most of the week. As the next full moon cycle approaches, the persistent easterly flow may also lead to higher than predicted tide levels over the Atlantic Coast towards the middle of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 75 87 76 86 / 10 20 20 40 West Kendall 72 87 74 87 / 10 20 20 40 Opa-Locka 74 87 75 87 / 10 10 20 40 Homestead 73 85 74 86 / 10 20 30 50 Fort Lauderdale 75 85 76 86 / 10 10 20 40 N Ft Lauderdale 75 85 76 86 / 10 10 20 30 Pembroke Pines 73 86 74 86 / 10 10 20 40 West Palm Beach 74 85 74 86 / 10 10 10 30 Boca Raton 75 85 76 86 / 10 10 10 30 Naples 70 89 71 88 / 0 10 10 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ Aviation...RAG Visit us at weather.gov/miami Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwsmiami www.twitter.com/nwsmiami