388 FXUS61 KGYX 191055 AAA AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Gray ME 655 AM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Northwest flow will keep clouds and showers going over the the higher terrain for much of the day today. South of the mountains while it may be drier will still be raw and gusty with temperatures struggling into the 50s. Above normal temperatures will return Wednesday into Friday, but the rollercoaster continues with another cool down over the weekend. Chances for widespread precipitation through the end of the week are low as any rain remains showery across the north Thursday and with the passage of a series of cold fronts Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Update...Minor changes to PoP to account for latest radar observational trends. We are in the middle of one of those relative maxes in upslope shower coverage. I anticipate a lull mid morning...followed by another increase this afternoon. Previous discussion...The local area remains well under the influence of upper low pressure. Cyclonic flow over the higher terrain is producing a fairly classic upslope precip event. Based on forecast soundings and cloud presentation on IR satellite...air is not free flowing over the terrain at the moment. Forecast Froude numbers suggest the bulk of the upslope shower activity will keep QPF max near the peaks. Temps solidly at or below freezing from about 2500 ft...so some minor snow accumulations continue today for those summits. Forecasts also suggest a double max in activity today. One with an embedded S/WV trof occurring right now...and a second embedded trof this afternoon. In addition to the increase in showers...wind gusts will also see a little uptick as well. Temps will struggle into the 50s...so between that the wind gusts...and showers it will feel like another raw day. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... As upper low starts to shift Ewd...any PoP will also start to become more confined to Wrn ME vs NH. With return flow starting overnight temps will be similar if not a couple degrees warmer than this morning. Wed will see warm front lifting into the area. Srn half of the forecast area could get quite warm...with readings back around 10 degrees above normal. Once the warm front lifts thru the area any chance of precip will be quite low. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Wednesday night, clouds increase as low pressure passes through the eastern Great Lakes. The outreaching warm front will remain over central NH and southern ME through the day, with another warm day set for these locations. The coolest spots will be across the Longfellow Mtns where overrunning rain showers will move through during the afternoon. The coast and foothills will likely remain in a mostly dry warm sector before the center of low pres tracks east. Showers will finally move into these locations Thurs night as the cold front is brought through. The shortwave amid the longwave pattern is much more amplified over the Great Lakes vs. when it arrives in New England, thus much of the precip may consolidate towards the occluded portion. This may also coincide with orographic lift from the higher terrain as indicated by WPC’s QPF outlook. All in all, it will be the period’s greatest chance for more widespread rain, but fairly light. With the cold front’s exit Friday, temps take a turn for more seasonable conditions. A cooling trend is expected through early next week as the upper air pattern brings broad low pres aloft overhead. There will be embedded shortwaves associated with this pattern, one of which has been producing a sfc low pres system off the Gulf of Maine in GEM/ECMWF runs fairly consistently. The positioning of this low and track will be determined by how quickly the aforementioned cold front escapes the coast. These solutions keep some semblance of the front near the coastal waters Saturday, allowing this developing sfc low to strengthen as a mid level jet rounds the base of the trough. Additional lift may be in place with an accelerating upper jet across eastern ME and NB/NS, resulting in a showery precip shield backing into coastal Maine and NH through the weekend. Alternate thinking by the GEFS places the passing front outside the GofME, resulting in a drier solution. Have sided with mentioning at least some precip across the coastal plain during this time period. If the system is allowed to continue strengthening as it exits to the north and east, an even cooler push of air may be allowed in across the region into next week. This would result in possibly the first widespread frost/freeze for the CWA of the season; very late heading into the last week of October. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term...Occasional MVFR conditions possible in NW upslope flow thru this evening. HIE will be the terminal most likely to experience passing MVFR...especially in any SHRA. Otherwise widespread VFR with NW wind gusts in excess of 20 kt at times today. VFR conditions continue into Wed. Long Term...VFR outside of the NH mountains Wed night, with ceilings thickening and lowering Thursday. MVFR/IFR will be possible across northern NH TAFs and KAUG/KRKD. Remaining sites may remain VFR until a cold front brings down ceilings with -SHRA Thurs night. Conditions across the area improve to VFR Friday, with a trend towards MVFR possible again Saturday. && .MARINE... Short Term...Marginal SCA conditions are expected to continue for much of the day. A period of slightly stronger wind gusts...up to 30 kt...is possible this afternoon with the passage of another reinforcing front. Winds and seas diminish Wed. Long Term...Conditions expected to remain mostly below SCA criteria through Sat. There will be a period of winds around 25 kt Friday morning as a cold front approaches and passes over the waters. Wave heights are expected to be 1-2 ft, increasing to 2-4 ft. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150- 152-154. && $$ NEAR TERM...Legro SHORT TERM...Legro LONG TERM...Cornwell AVIATION...Cornwell/Legro MARINE...Cornwell/Legro