600 FXUS61 KALY 191052 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 652 AM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 .UPDATE... As of 6:50 AM EDT, clear skies were observed over the area with temperatures ranging in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Expect for a dry and tranquil weather day under sunny to mostly sunny skies. Made slight adjustments to temperatures and dewpoints to reflect current observations and forecast trends. Rest of forecast remains on track. See discussion below. && .SYNOPSIS... Today and Wednesday will feature dry and breezy weather conditions. Temperatures will continue to warm up from near seasonable levels today to warmer than normal levels Wednesday and Thursday. The weather pattern is then expected to become more unsettled Thursday into the weekend with periods of rain showers. Temperatures are expected to undergo a cool down Thursday into the weekend with values returning to cooler than normal levels Sunday into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Quiescent weather conditions commences today as subsidence, associated with a mid-level ridge axis to our west over the central U.S. and associated stout surface high pressure system centered over the Southeast U.S., builds/filters into the region. With the departed 535-537 hpa mid-upper low to our northeast over eastern Quebec/Nova Scotia area and building heights associated with the aforementioned ridge to our west, a tight pressure gradient will be established over the area. With mixing/Xfer momentum heights modestly increasing to about 850 hpa where winds at that level will be 40-50 kts, these winds out of the west-northwest could mix down to the surface/boundary layer resulting in a breezy day at times today. Gradient winds are expected to increase 10-15 kts across the area today. Enhancements due to the channeling down the Mohawk valley could result in occasional peak wind gust between 20-30 kts today with the areas most favored for the highest wind gust being from the Mohawk Valley into the Capital District and in the Berkshires of western Massachusetts. Outside of that, expect a tranquil day today. Warm air advection (WAA) from the west will result in temperatures warming up to near seasonable levels this afternoon across eastern New York and western New England. High temperatures are expected to rise into the lower to mid 60s along the valleys (50s higher elevations and even some upper 40s over the highest peaks). With a light westerly breeze continuing into the nighttime hours under variable cloudiness, low temperatures will not be as cool for mid to late October standards with values in the lower 50s along the valleys (40s higher elevations). && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... On Wednesday, the H500 heights deamplify or flatten out over the region. Isobars are expected to loosen some as the aforementioned upper low moves further away from the region. Additionally, mixing/Xfer momentum heights are not expected to rise as high as on Tuesday. As a result, winds could be breezy at times on Wednesday, just not as breezy as on Tuesday. Expect for west-northwest winds to range between 5-10 kts with gusts as high as 20-25 kts. Again, the favored areas of the highest wind speeds/gusts will be from the Mohawk Valley into the Capital District into the Berkshires. It will be another dry and tranquil day under mostly skies amid flat ridging overhead. West winds will continue to advect in warmer air into the region. That said, expect for temperatures to be unseasonably warm with high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s along the valleys (upper 50s to lower 60s over the higher elevations). Overnight low temperatures Wednesday night will be mild as well with values in the upper 40s to lower 50s. On Thursday, a 1008 hpa mid-latitude cyclone will be approaching from the Central U.S. Winds will shift out of the south ahead of the storm system. With the cold front associated with the storm system still west of the area Thursday afternoon, it should be another unseasonably warm day with high temperatures forecast to climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s (upper 50s to lower 60s higher elevations). As clouds thicken and lower in elevation, rain showers will overspread the region from northwest to southeast Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Thursday night looks to be the timeframe where the rain will be most widespread over the area. Rain rates and QPF values alike look to be light. QPF totals by Friday morning are forecast to range between one to three tenths of an inch. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... On Friday, our region will be located in the wake of a surface frontal boundary but still downstream of an approaching upper level trough over the Great Lakes. West-southwest flow will dominate at all levels ahead of the advancing upper level energy. It should be dry, as we will be caught between the best forcing. While temps will be somewhat cooler and less humid than Thursday, there won't be a large drop in temps, as the cooler temps will still be located off to the west. Daytime temps should reach the mid to upper 60s for valley areas, with 50s for the hills and mountains. Over the weekend, the large upper level trough will be moving towards the Northeast. Despite that the core of the upper level low may still remain just to our north, there will be significantly lower height/temps aloft that will make for much cooler temps for the weekend. Daytime temps will only be in the 40s and 50s, with 30s at night. Some models continue to show a wave of low pressure developing along the front offshore, which could be close enough to bring some light rain to the region. However, some models continue to show this far enough offshore, so will keep POPs fairly low at this time. Even without the coastal wave, some showers will be possible over the weekend, thanks to the cyclonic flow in place. This will be especially true for areas north/west of the Capital Region, as some lake-enhancement will be possible. With the much cooler temps aloft, can't rule out some wet snowflakes mixing across the western Adirondacks at times as well. Skies should be fairly cloudy through the weekend thanks to the cyclonic flow and cool temps aloft. For early next week, temps will continue to be chilly, as the upper level low slowly departs off to the east. The threat for instability/cyclonic flow showers should diminish, with skies becoming partly to mostly clear. Daytime temps will continue to be in the mid 40s to mid 50s, with overnight lows ranging from the upper 20s to mid 30s. This will allow for a widespread frost for most areas, with a freeze possible as well. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper level low is located over eastern Canada and will continue to slowly move eastward today. Through the day, VFR conditions are expected for all sites with just mid level clouds around, thanks to some lingering moisture on the backside of the departing upper level low. Clouds may wind up being few-sct this morning, but may become sct-bkn for later this afternoon into this evening. West to northwest winds will increase to 10 to 15 kts for all sites. A few higher gusts are possible in the late morning or early afternoon hours, especially at KALB. Winds will somewhat decrease for this evening into tonight, but will still remain elevated around 10 kts. The sct-bkn mid level clouds this evening will start to become few-sct at 4-5 kft for the overnight hours, allowing for VFR conditions to continue. With the breeze and dry low-levels in place, no worries for any radiational fog for tonight. Outlook... Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Fire weather issues are not expected over the next few days. Today and Wednesday will feature dry and breezy weather conditions. Temperatures will continue to warm up from near seasonable levels today to warmer than normal levels Wednesday and Thursday. The weather pattern is then expected to become more unsettled Thursday into the weekend with periods of rain showers. Temperatures are expected to undergo a cool down Thursday into the weekend with values returning to cooler than normal levels Sunday into early next week. Minimum relative humidity (RH) values today will range from 40-60% with the lowest values located over the mid-Hudson Valley. Tonight, max RH values will range between 85-100%. On Wednesday, minimum relative humidity values will range from 45-75%. Wednesday night, max relative humidity values will range from 85-100%. On Thursday, minimum relative humidity values will range between 50-75%. Winds today will be out of the west-northwest 10-15 kts with gusts ranging between 20-30 kts. The highest gusts will be located along a corridor from the Mohawk Valley, into the Capital District and into the Berkshires of western Massachusetts. Westerly winds will abate tonight at 5-10 kts with gusts as high as 15-20 kts (greatest values over the higher terrain). On Wednesday, west-northwest winds will range from 5-15 kts with gusts between 20-25 kts. Again, the favored corridor of highest wind gust speeds will be from the Mohawk Valley into the Capital District into the Berkshires. Wednesday night, winds will subside become very light to calm with magnitudes less than 5 kts. On Thursday, a southerly wind component will develop with magnitudes between 5-15 kts. Winds could gust as high as 20 kts (most favored over the Capital District). && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrological issues or concerns are expected over the next five to seven days. Today and Wednesday will feature dry and breezy weather conditions. The weather pattern is then expected to become more unsettled Thursday into the weekend with periods of rain showers. Precipitation rates are expected to be light overall through the period. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ UPDATE...Evbuoma SYNOPSIS...Evbuoma NEAR TERM...Evbuoma SHORT TERM...Evbuoma LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Frugis FIRE WEATHER...Evbuoma HYDROLOGY...Evbuoma