953 FXUS61 KBGM 191047 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 647 AM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Skies will clear from west to east tonight, with sunny and much warmer conditions Tuesday and Wednesday. Warm conditions continue into Thursday, but a cold front will bring rain showers and cooler air. Temperatures will be closer to seasonal at the end of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 630 am update... Due to light winds and a few areas becoming saturated at the surface, patchy fog has formed. Visibility has bounced around 2SM at Rome and the surrounding area. For areas that typically have fog, like the valleys around Elmira, winds are a bit stronger which is preventing any fog to develop. With this fog development, patchy fog was added to the forecast through just past sunrise. Skies have otherwise cleared out over most of the region. There are some clouds hanging around the Catskills. Temps and winds were updated based on latest obs resulted in only minor changes. 330 am update... Lake effect rain showers are wrapping up early this morning. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected today as low-level flow becomes more westerly which will advect warm, dry air into the region. This will lead to a significant warm up today with temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s. High pressure will bring mostly clear skies today. Winds are expected to be gusty from the late morning hours through the afternoon as stronger, mid-level winds will be able mix down toward the surface. Wind gusts of 20-25 mph will be possible. While skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy, the overnight lows will remain mild with most hovering around 50 while those in the northern portions of the Finger Lakes region could observe mid-50s. As an upper level ridge moves into the region Wednesday, 850mb temps increase to near double digits, especially over NEPA and the Catskills. This will lead to an even warmer day as temperatures will be in the mid 60s to low 70s. With continuing high pressure, skies will remain mostly to partly sunny. Winds will be breezy once again, but overall calmer than what is expected today. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 400 AM Update... A Great-Lakes-to-Saint-Lawrence low will drop a cold front across the region Thursday afternoon and evening, with showers and perhaps a little embedded thunder. For Wednesday night, fairly mild conditions are anticipated with increasing clouds courtesy of warm air advection from southwesterly flow ahead of that low. The Catskills may still get into the mid 40s for lows, with a longer period of radiational cooling before clouds arrive. Otherwise upper 40s to mid 50s are anticipated for our region. Models depict a well-marked wave pivoting through Lower Michigan early Thursday, around broader cyclonic flow centered near James Bay. The wave takes on a negative tilt, with associated surface low somewhat deepening while tracking through the eastern Great Lakes and down the St. Lawrence Thursday afternoon through evening. In addition the low itself, this will drop a cold front through our region during that time. Showers will likely result, especially in Central New York closer to the low track. A few tenths of an inch will be possible there. Weak yet present instability may be enough for a few embedded thunderstorms as well. With our area spending most of the day in the warm sector under southwesterly winds, highs will be a good 9-12 degrees above average; in the mid 60s- lower 70s. Moisture depth goes shallow behind the upper wave later Thursday night, with showers diminishing/becoming spotty and light. Despite the beginning of post-frontal cool air advection, clouds and moisture will hold lows into the upper 40s-lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 400 AM Update... Details are sketchy, but there is confidence in the bigger picture for a chilly weekend. Large upper level low pressure from near James Bay, is projected to wobble around Quebec-Eastern Canada. This will keep our region under the broad cyclonic flow around that low, making for chilly conditions especially over the weekend with highs of upper 40s-upper 50s. Forecast lows are 30s-lower 40s. Around the low, there will be multiple spokes/disturbances rotating around which may cause showers. Additionally, surface low pressure edging up the East Coast could present additional moisture for a few showers. In summary, the weekend will not be a washout by any means, but it will be cool and perhaps blustery with scattered showers. Wet snowflakes could mix in at higher elevations/nighttime periods. The spotty showers could bleed a little into Monday, since cutoff lows are notorious for taking longer-than-expected to get fully out of the region. However, Canadian high pressure is currently projected by operational models to drop into the area Monday, which could also dry things out by then. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Some patchy fog has developed near RME. It should clear up soon after sunrise. Other than the fog and restrictions at RME, all terminals are expected to be VFR throughout the period. There is a low chance that fog will develop at ELM tomorrow morning bringing reduced visibilities, but confidence was too low to include at this time. Skies have cleared around the terminals this morning and should remain mostly clear throughout the period with high pressure in place. Westerly winds become gusty by mid-morning with gusts up to 20 kts possible. Winds are expected to be gusty through the afternoon hours before becoming calmer by this evening. Low-level wind shear (LLWS) is expected at all NY terminals this evening, beginning around 22-23z. This LLWS is expected to last at least through early Wednesday morning. LLWS is also expected at AVP for a brief period tonight beginning around 02z Wednesday. Outlook... Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Thursday and Friday...Flight restrictions likely due to the next round of rain showers starting by Thursday afternoon. Saturday...Possible restrictions from lake effect showers but mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BTL/TAC NEAR TERM...BTL SHORT TERM...MDP LONG TERM...MDP AVIATION...BTL