097 FXUS63 KGLD 190929 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 329 AM MDT Tue Oct 19 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue Oct 19 2021 At the beginning of the short term period, current RAP analysis shows an upper air low pressure system over central UT with the CWA having a southwesterly flow aloft as it is between this low and an eastern ridge. Model guidance depicts that the low will move to the east-northeast along the CO/WY and make it to the CO/NE/WY border by Tuesday evening. At the surface, a drier air mass looks to move over the CWA early on Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front associated with a surface low in the vicinity of the CO/NE border. With this setup, the CWA may see some wind gusts ranging up to 35 mph and possibly exceeding that in some areas during the day. With these winds and the drier air mass bringing RH values below 20 percent, near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday afternoon south of a line from Joes, Colorado to McCook, Nebraska. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Cheyenne County Colorado and Greeley County Kansas for Tuesday afternoon. These two counties look to have the potential to meet the criteria of a few hours of relative humidity values at 15 percent or just below. There is some uncertainty if they will meet the criteria with the approaching cold front though latest model runs show the higher dew point temperatures associated with the front do not reach northern Cheyenne County border until 00Z Weds. Daytime highs on Tuesday in the CWA look to range from the middle 60s in the far northwestern portion to the lower 80s in the eastern portions. On Tuesday night, models show the upper air low progressing northeast to the central NE/SD border and staying north of the CWA. Behind the low, a weak ridge starts to develop over the Rockies. At the surface, low chances for precipitation and breezy conditions look to continue with northwesterly winds around 15 mph expected. These winds will help keep frost at bay overnight as cooler temperatures return. Overnight lows on Tuesday night expect to be in the lower 30s to lower 40s range. On Wednesday, model guidance depicts the low moving east towards the Great Lakes region with the front part of the ridge moving over the CWA by the evening hours. Far off to the west, models show an upper air low spinning off the Pacific Northwest Coast behind the ridge. At the surface, dry conditions are expected to continue going through the day for the CWA. Winds look to stay northwesterly around 10 to 15 mph with some possible gusts up to around 25 to 30 mph during the afternoon. By Wednesday night, a surface high looks to set up south of the CWA and help slow down the winds quite a bit. With colder temperatures near or below freezing, the CWA sees a good chance for frost to develop overnight. Daytime highs on Wednesday look to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s with overnight lows in the lower to middle 30s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 235 AM MDT Tue Oct 19 2021 The focus in the long term period is on the possibility of a more widespread frost and freeze Wednesday night into Thursday morning with a diminishing potential for a frost or freeze Friday and Saturday as temperatures warm through the weekend and into the beginning of next week. A weak short wave trough aloft moves east of the Rockies and across the central High Plains Thursday with only an increase in clouds expected. An upper ridge amplifies over the Rockies Thursday night and moves east over the High Plains on Friday and Friday night ahead of the next through to move through the flattening westerly flow aloft Saturday night. The upper flow begins to turn more southwesterly over the forecast area Monday with the approach of a trough deepening over the western U.S. The cooler area of surface high pressure in place over the northern and central High Plains region early Thursday morning brings a greater chance of a more widespread frost and freeze to the forecast area. The high moves east over the central Plains states during the day allowing temperatures to start warming again across mainly the western sections of the forecast area with possible elevated fire weather conditions over far eastern Colorado where the afternoon minimum RH values briefly dip into the upper teens. No fire weather highlights are expected at this time as wind speeds remain mostly light. Temperatures continue to warm gradually through the weekend into early next week with highs reaching the middle to upper 70s by Monday. Low temperatures will also be increasing gradually with 40s and lower 50s by Monday night. As temperatures warm each day, the possible areas of frost and near freezing temperatures gets smaller Friday and Saturday mornings. The possibility of the forecast area seeing any frost disappears by Sunday and Monday mornings. The overall pattern has shifted eastward somewhat in the model depictions. So what was showing up as a slight chance of precipitation over the eastern sections of the forecast area late in the weekend has also shifted eastward. The current expectation is that the long term forecast period will remain dry. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 923 PM MDT Mon Oct 18 2021 VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Surface winds will gust to 20-30 kts Tuesday afternoon and evening behind a cold front. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM MDT this evening for KSZ041. CO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ254. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...076 LONG TERM...LOCKHART AVIATION...024