890 
FXUS64 KTSA 190916
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
416 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Breezy southerly winds will keep fire weather concerns heightened
today, especially west of Highway 75 in northeast Oklahoma.
Humidity values will not be as low as they were Monday however, 
which will keep the overall fire danger limited.

An upper level storm system over Utah early this morning will move
east across the central plains Wednesday, allowing a weak cold
front to push across our area. A few showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm may develop late Wednesday afternoon across mainly
northwest Arkansas, with a better chance for a few showers and
storms after dark from southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas.

This front will stall south of the Red River Thursday before
lifting back north Friday through the weekend. Mainly nocturnal
convective development is anticipated north of the boundary each
night from Thursday night through Saturday night, with convection
waning during the morning hours each day.

By Sunday afternoon and Monday, all of our forecast area will be
in the warm sector, with unseasonably warm temperatures expected
as a result. The next cold front will arrive around Tuesday night
of next week, likely accompanied by showers and storms.

Raised temperatures above the National Blend of Models forecast
Sunday and Monday. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  62  79  47 /   0   0  10  10 
FSM   77  56  83  54 /   0   0  10  20 
MLC   76  62  80  52 /   0   0  10  20 
BVO   77  58  78  41 /   0   0   0  10 
FYV   73  55  77  45 /   0   0  20  20 
BYV   73  56  77  47 /   0   0  20  20 
MKO   76  58  77  49 /   0   0  10  10 
MIO   75  59  76  44 /   0   0  10  10 
F10   76  60  80  47 /   0   0  10  10 
HHW   77  58  81  57 /   0   0   0  20 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....05

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