936 
FXUS65 KLKN 190914
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
214 AM PDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Dissipating stratus clouds this morning. Warmer but 
still cool today and tomorrow. A weak wave could bring a few 
showers across northern Nevada tomorrow, mainly north of I-80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday evening...Clearing skies early 
today as the upper level low that brought rain/snow showers 
continues to depart to the east. Some lingering low stratus this 
morning, especially along north facing slopes. Can't rule out an 
shower or two across far eastern NV this morning, esp eastern White 
Pine county. Some patchy fog possible as well. Shortwave ridging 
quickly builds in today. Ridge will then shift east tonight into 
tomorrow with southwest flow setting up over the region. Pacific 
moisture and a shortwave in the flow aloft are expected to clip 
northern Nevada, bringing a few rain and high mountain snow showers 
for mainly Humboldt into northern Elko county. Slightly warmer but 
still cool today with highs in the upper 40s to around 60. Continued 
warming trend for Wednesday with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. 
Highs during the afternoon will be in the 60s. While chilly, may be 
enough cloud cover this morning and again tonight to prevent temps 
from really bottoming out with lows generally in the mid 20s to mid 
30s.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday night through next Monday. The long term
begins with an overhead ridge axis that will shift eastward during 
the overnight and into Thursday. Winds will be out of the southwest 
and generally light aside from Humboldt county and surrounding areas 
where conditions look to be slightly breezy. Low temperatures will 
be upper 20s to mid 30s Wednesday night, while afternoon highs will 
be in the 60s on Thursday.

THursday night and Friday. Guidance continues to depict a rather 
active pattern setting up across the western United States, though 
there are still differences on the strength and timing of various 
waves and impulses in the flow. The first wave is anticipated to 
move through during this timeframe and set up an area of shower 
activity across central Nevada from west to east late Friday.
Overnight lows will be in the 20s and 30s while highs on Friday will 
continue to be above normal with readings in the 60s.

Saturday and Sunday. Again there are variations in the model 
simulations depending on the timing and strength of systems, but the 
main message continues to be an active and possible wet period. A 
few isolated showers remain possible across northern portions of the 
forecast area on Saturday. Another push of cooler air will be in 
store Sunday/Sunday night with more widespread rain and mountain 
snow showers expected as a possible atmospheric river sets up, 
moving onto the western US, and possibly pushing across northern and 
central Nevada by Monday. Showers will last through Monday. Highs on 
Saturday and Sunday will be near normal levels with readings in the 
50s, trending cooler by Monday. Overnight lows will be in the 30s. 
Winds could be breezy each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...Lingering stratus clouds early this morning should 
dissipate by midday. CIGs will generally be MVFR under stratus. 
High clouds will then increase later today into tonight. Winds 
generally less than 10kts, but ELY will increase 10-18kts tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...No fire concerns at this time. Cool and dry along 
with lighter winds today as brief high pressure builds in over 
Nevada. A few showers possible across northern Nevada tomorrow, 
mainly north of I-80.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&

$$

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