241 FXUS61 KBUF 190901 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 501 AM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Warmer temperatures will return through Thursday as high pressure builds into the region, which will also provide for dry weather through most of Wednesday. A cold front moving through on Thursday will bring the next chance for a widespread rainfall, followed by cooler near normal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Cloud cover has almost entirely cleared out this morning across the area, with just some scattered clouds east of Lake Ontario. Some river valley fog has begun to form early this morning with the clearing skies and lighter winds. Current temperatures across the area are in the mid 30s to mid 40s from the higher terrain to lower elevations respectively. Increased ridging is resulting from the earlier trough and upper level low over the region that is departing to the northeast. With the increased ridging and a large area of high pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley, mostly dry weather should remain in place through the day on Wednesday. Mostly clear skies will be in place through Wednesday morning, before a slight uptick in the clouds begins from the north and west with the next approaching system. In addition to the drier weather, temperatures will also warm back to above normal values, with daytime highs in the low to upper 60s, with a few readings of 70 possible. A few of the higher spots may struggle to make it out of the 50s Today and Wednesday. Winds will pickup during the day today as the pressure gradient over the region tightens with the area of high pressure nudging north toward the area. This will result in afternoon wind gusts of 20-25 MPH, with a few gusts to 30 MPH possible near the lakes and over the higher terrain. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Progressive compact shortwave trough tracking across the Great Lakes through the period will bring next chance of rain to the region. Majority of showers well ahead of this feature in leading warm air advection regime will hold off til after midnight on Wed night, first reaching western NY and also arcing up toward North Country. Eventually swath of showers will spread across rest of region on Thursday ahead of cold front. Small chance of thunder with at least some MUCAPE and increasing low-level jet ahead of the front. Low-level jet will also result in breezy conditions Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Once the front crosses on Thursday evening, showers later Thursday night may become enhanced off lakes due to cooling west-northwest flow. Actually a brief potential for robust lake enhancement southeast of Lake Ontario with lake ELs rising quickly above 20kft, so could be some thunder in this activity. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A cold front exits east of the region Friday morning. Dry advection behind the front should result in minimal lake effect on Friday with best chances southeast of Lake Ontario. Temps drop back into the 50s for all areas. Weaker shortwave works across later Friday night into Saturday morning, so may be some light rain showers especially over Southern Tier to Finger Lakes. Later Saturday into Saturday night, as upper level trough drops across, a reinforcing cold front will swing across the region. H85 temps drop to at least -2c by Sunday morning behind that front which is sufficient for a lake response off both lakes in general west- northwest flow. Should be greater moisture and there is potential for shortwave to be working through at this time as well. Overall that will result in increasing chances for showers first downstream of the lakes, then expanding to more areas later Sunday as the trough axis/colder air aloft works across. Yet another cold front works through Sunday night (H85 temps -4c or even lower), veering winds to more northwesterly. Showers will continue off the lakes and also over the higher terrain locations due to upslope flow/lift. Ptype will be mainly rain next weekend, but with H85 temps flirting with -5c or even -6c at times later in the weekend per some of the colder guidance, could see some wet snowflakes across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario (Sat night and Sun Night) and possibly even over western NY (Sun night). Trough axis will begin shifting east next Monday but next system could quickly bring another chance of rain. Pops were kept in the slight chance range for now. Temps will be similar or even cooler to what just occurred with daytime highs Saturday through Monday only in the 50s and even staying in the 40s east of Lake Ontario. Nighttime lows for all but the immediate lake plains (around 40) will drop into the 30s. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions expected today with mostly clear skies as high pressure and ridging take control of the weather over the eastern third of the country. Areas of valley fog this morning over the Western Southern Tier will provide the opportunity for brief periods of lower flight conditions at JHW. Gusty winds, mostly in the 20-25 MPH range is expected this afternoon at most of the terminals. Tonight, mainly VFR, sfc winds weaken, but some guidance is suggesting some LLWS for areas SE of Lake Ontario, so this will continue to be monitored. Outlook... Wednesday...VFR. Thursday...Restrictions likely with periods of showers. Friday and Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers. && .MARINE... West to northwest winds will maintain small craft conditions on southern Lake Ontario this morning. Surface high pressure will slide from the Ohio Valley to near the Carolina coast today through Wednesday. A fairly tight pressure gradient will develop across both Lakes today on the northern periphery of this surface high bringing a moderate westerly flow lasting into Wednesday, likely continuing small craft conditions on Lake Ontario through mid-week. This has also necessitated the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory for Lake Erie from this afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Wednesday for LOZ043-044. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT Wednesday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT Wednesday for LOZ045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SW NEAR TERM...SW SHORT TERM...JLA LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...SW MARINE...JM/TMA