599 
FXUS63 KSGF 190837
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
337 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

An upper level ridge will remain over the area again today. Highs
today will generally warm into the middle 70s this afternoon under
mostly sunny skies. A few locations could top out in the upper 
70s.

Surface low pressure will move east across the central Plains 
today. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the area 
allowing breezy southerly winds to occur. The strongest winds 
across the area will occur across southeastern Kansas and far 
western Missouri where gusts up to around 30 mph will occur at 
times. 

Lows tonight will only cool into the 50s with some locations in
southeastern Kansas remaining around the 60 degree mark. 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

An upper low will move across the northern Plains on Wednesday.
Surface low pressure will move out of the central Plains and
across Iowa sending a cold front southeast across the area during
the day on Wednesday. A drier air mass will be in place across the
area ahead of the front. Also a strong cap will be in place 
across the area during the morning hours. For much of the area the
front will likely pass through dry, or just with a few sprinkles.
The cap will start to weaken during the afternoon hours Wednesday
across portions of the eastern Ozarks. The drier air mass will 
still be in place but with the cap weakening and lift from the 
front, there will likely be enough moisture in the lower levels 
of the atmosphere for some scattered showers to develop along the
front during the afternoon hours, generally east of Highway 65. 
The air mass in the middle and upper level of the atmosphere will 
still be quite dry which will limit the overall thunder potential 
as the available instability will be used up overcoming the drier 
air. Still a few isolated non-severe storms could still be 
possible as lift with the front could help to overcome the dry 
air generally across portions south central Missouri and the 
eastern Ozarks. 

Highs are Wednesday will again warm into the lower to upper 70s
with the warmest conditions across south central MO where the
front will move through later in the day. 

A slightly cooler air mass will settle into the area on Thursday
as highs in the 60s are expected. An upper level ridge will build
back over the area by this weekend with highs in the 70s
returning. 

A weak disturbance could track through the region this weekend and
bring some shower and thunderstorm chances back to the area. There
are questions on the exact track and location of this system which
will affect rain chances. Not all locations could be affected by
this system, just depends on the exact track. 

A strong upper level system will then track through the region at
some point next week. There are differences in the models on the 
track, timing,and strength of this system. Showers and storms will
again be possible. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

VFR conditions are expected across the area today and tonight.
Mid to high level clouds will move across the area this morning
but will clear this afternoon. Southerly winds will pick up this 
morning and become gusty into early this evening. Winds will relax
some this evening and then may become gusty again overnight. Low 
level wind shear will be possible tonight into early Wednesday 
morning.

A front will move through the area on Wednesday after the TAF
period. The front will likely pass through the TAF sites dry. A
few showers and storms will be possible across the eastern Ozarks
generally east of the TAF sites late Wednesday morning into the 
afternoons.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise