102 FXUS63 KFGF 190829 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 329 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 329 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Short term sensible weather impacts are related to a strong cold front that will bring a period of windy conditions today, and likelihood of wetting rains late tonight through Wednesday afternoon in our south. The initial wind shift associated with the cold front is over the northern RRV and Devils Lake basin spreading southeast, while the stronger CAA is offset in Canada (where low associated low stratus has develop and is spreading south). This may stall briefly creating a window for mild high temps in the 60s across our southeast (mainly west central MN), before the main trough starts to kick east. There is a signal for windy conditions to develop as the strong CAA spreads down the RRV and over eastern ND this morning and enhanced momentum transfer due to down valley northerly flow could result in wind gusts to 40 mph for a brief period this morning. 925 MB winds are generally in the 25-35kt range, and current mixing heights do not tap into higher winds, and confidence is that winds remain under advisory criteria (further supported by a lack of higher signal in latest ensemble guidance or CAMs wind gusts). There is still a strong consensus on the track of the upper low over southern SD , and at least some deformation/positive frontogenesis tracking through our southern CWA (generally along/south of I-94), though the more organized forcing may remain south along with deeper moisture advection. A combination of good forcing, duration, and weak instability could still support moderate to locally heavy rain totals. Rainfall probs from NBM and HREF PMM still favor amounts in the 0.1 to 0.25" range, with 30-40% probs for 0.5" or higher which would occur over a more localized area. Substantially drier air in the northerly flow north of the closed low still creates a situation where precip will be limited in its northern extent. This also lowers confidence that mixed precip would occur as colder (and very dry) profiles move in. I still wouldn't rule out a few flurries on the back side of the precip region during the colder part of the morning hours, but impacts are limited (especially due to warmer ground temps). .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 329 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Long term period begins with a long stretch of dry and cold weather to finish out the work week. An upper ridge begins to amplify over the Rockies while a deep upper low spins over the Hudson bay. Low temperatures in the lower 20s will bring chilly mornings on both Thursday and Friday. This period will see PWAT values less than 0.25 inch, so any waves rotating around the Hudson low will not bring any precipitation. The upper ridge translates into the upper Great Lakes by Sunday morning, and SW flow aloft into the northern tier will bring chances for some precipitation from late Saturday night through Sunday. Confidence of any impactful weather is low as NAEFS/GEFS moisture signals are about average, with a slight increase in signal by noon Sunday. The SW flow aloft pattern does bring the potential for more active weather, with low POPs in for both Sunday night through Monday night. By Tuesday, the upper low/trough moves into the upper midwest while PWAT values begin to finally climb over 1 inch, increasing confidence for the next best chance for wide spread showers as temps will be in the 40s Monday night and 50s on Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Significant changes ahead as cold front moves SSE thru the area next 12 hours. Gusty north winds with potential for gusts 35 kts in parts of E ND/RRV Tuesday midday-aftn with sustained 20-25 kts. Much less wind and a later wind shift once you go east to Bemidji and southeast to Fergus Falls. Biggest question will be timing of MVFR cloud deck moving SSE behind the front. Based on current movement timed MVFR cigs into DVL approx 10z, GFK 13-14z FAR/TVF near 16z. BJI not til 20z or so. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. $$ SHORT TERM...DJR LONG TERM...Spender AVIATION...Riddle