761 FXUS63 KDVN 190752 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 252 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 252 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Conditions early this morning were a bit warmer with slightly higher moisture levels than the past few days. This was due to the weak low level southerly flow ahead of a developing low pressure system over the central Rockies. Temperatures were in the 40s to low 50s, while dewpoints trailed by only a few degrees in the 40s, resulting in a few sites reporting light fog. Skies were mainly clear overhead, but satellite imagery showed an upstream band of high level clouds, from central IA into NW MO and eastern KS in the southwest flow ahead of an impressive upper level circulation moving into the southern Rockies. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Temperatures are the primary concern, with a secondary focus on low chances for late night showers. Sunshine and well above normal warm temperatures will prevail again today with stronger winds than yesterday. The upper level low over the rockies is progged to lift northeast into the Central Plains tonight, while the mean upper level ridge axis just east of the MS River Valley edges slightly eastward. At the surface, the increasing pressure gradient ahead of the developing frontal system lee of the Rockies will result in breezy conditions today. The current band of cloud cover should be thin as it advances through the area this morning into early afternoon, providing plenty of sunshine with insufficient moisture levels in place for any cumulus clouds. Anticipating another day of mixing, to roughly 850 mb, where warm advection is taking place, should lead to warmer temperatures then yesterday in most areas with highs in the lower to mid 70s. South winds will become gusty from 10 to 20 mph with forecast soundings suggesting some gusts over 25 mph possible. Tonight, weak mid level lift, steep mid level lapse rates and a shallow layer of moisture return aloft along the nose of a modest 850 mb jet moving into NW MO and central IA may lead to at least isolated high based showers or sprinkles. This looks to be focused mainly west of the forecast area and will keep slight chance pops toward sunrise in place for part of northeast MO and areas west of the 218 corridor in eastern IA. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds will hold temperatures warmer than tonight with forecast lows from around 50 to the lower 50s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 A mid-week storm system will bring a risk of some rain followed by dry and much cooler temperatures. The overall pattern may turn a bit more active starting over the weekend. Wednesday/Wednesday night Assessment...medium confidence The next storm system will sweep through the area bringing some rain. The lowest levels of the atmosphere remain quite dry but there is a shallow elevated layer of moisture with forcing in said layer. The overall scenario suggests the potential for considerable virga Wednesday with isolated to scattered convective cells. Such a scenario indicates many hours of dry weather with brief periods of rain. Any thunderstorms on Wednesday would be isolated in nature and limited to the afternoon and very early evening hours. Once the sun sets Wednesday most of the rain will quickly end with only some lingering light rain across the far northern areas for much of the night. Thursday through Friday Assessment...medium to high confidence Much cooler conditions will be seen across the area. Steep changes in temperature and the nearby upper level disturbance should keep plenty of clouds across the area during the period. Much of the area should remain dry but one cannot rule out some very isolated rain showers developing during the afternoon of both Thursday and Friday. Friday night/Saturday Assessment...high confidence on dry conditions. Medium confidence on potential frost. High pressure will move through the area Friday night and Saturday keeping cool temperatures across the area. Cloud cover will be the determining factor but late Friday night and into Saturday morning has a risk of frost for areas generally north of I-80. Saturday night through Monday Assessment...low to medium confidence There may be a slightly more active weather pattern developing across the Midwest but there are disagreements between the global models. The GFS and CMC global develop another storm system in the Plains that slowly moves through the area from late Saturday night through Monday. The ECMWF starts to develop a system but keeps it quite weak and thus not as much rain. The model consensus as a result is biased toward the GFS/CMC solutions and has chance pops Saturday night and Sunday night, chance to likely pops on Sunday and slight chance pops on Monday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night) ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Conditions will remain VFR throughout with only thin high level cloud cover. Light winds overnight will becoming gusty from the south during the day Tuesday as a storm system develops over the plains. Gusts of 20 to 25 kts will be possible in the afternoon. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sheets SHORT TERM...Sheets LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...Sheets