381 FXUS61 KBGM 190737 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 337 AM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Skies will clear from west to east tonight, with sunny and much warmer conditions Tuesday and Wednesday. Warm conditions continue into Thursday, but a cold front will bring rain showers and cooler air. Temperatures will be closer to seasonal at the end of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 330 am update... Lake effect rain showers are wrapping up early this morning. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected today as low-level flow becomes more westerly which will advect warm, dry air into the region. This will lead to a significant warm up today with temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s. High pressure will bring mostly clear skies today. Winds are expected to be gusty from the late morning hours through the afternoon as stronger, mid-level winds will be able mix down toward the surface. Wind gusts of 20-25 mph will be possible. While skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy, the overnight lows will remain mild with most hovering around 50 while those in the northern portions of the Finger Lakes region could observe mid-50s. As an upper level ridge moves into the region Wednesday, 850mb temps increase to near double digits, especially over NEPA and the Catskills. This will lead to an even warmer day as temperatures will be in the mid 60s to low 70s. With continuing high pressure, skies will remain mostly to partly sunny. Winds will be breezy once again, but overall calmer than what is expected today. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... 304 pm update... Main concerns in the short term are focused on the mild temperatures through the middle of the week and the onset of the next round of rain showers Thursday morning and even the potential for a few weak thunderstorms in the afternoon. Weak ridging aloft and a surface high over the Northeast will allow the dry weather conditions to continue most of the day Wednesday and Wed night. Plenty of sun and warm air under the ridge will cause temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 60s and even a few lower 70s as well Wed afternoon. Cloud cover will increase Wed night as the next short wave approaches from the west. A warm front extending to the east of the system will lift north across the area early Thursday which could touch off a few rain showers before noon. The surface low will track from the central Great Lakes into southern Quebec during the day Thursday as a cold front extending to the south sweeps across NY and PA. There will be sufficient forcing along this front to trigger a broad but transient area of rain showers through the rest of the day Thursday. Will also need to be concerned about the potential for isolated thunderstorms. Deep layer shear could rise above 40 kt within this dynamic system, but instability could be the limiting factor with ML CAPE values around 100-200 J/kg. Will need to watch this time period closely. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 304 pm update... The cold front will be exiting the region Thursday evening with trailing rain showers continuing into early Friday morning over the Mohawk Valley and nrn Catskills. The pattern will become slightly more convoluted and difficult to predict given the varying solutions from the model guidance, but the overall trend will be a colder one going into the weekend. The synoptic pattern will be generally cyclonic with several weak short waves rotating through Friday through Sunday. The precipitation type will likely be mostly rain, but there could be periods, especially overnight, where the cold air drops south far enough for the rain to mix with snow. Temperatures will be trending downward into the weekend with overnight lows in the 30s and 40s...and daytime highs only reaching into the 50s. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure and drier air will continue to move into the region tonight. VFR conditions are expected throughout this period, though some MVFR ceilings were just reported at ITH. Those are not expected to last long. With the drier air moving into the region, skies will be mostly clear by the afternoon. Westerly winds will become gusty by the mid-morning hours with gusts up to 20 kts possible in the afternoon at all terminals. Winds should become calmer again by tomorrow evening with sustained speeds of 5-10 kts. Low-level wind shear (LLWS) is expected at all NY terminals tomorrow evening, beginning around 22-23z. This LLWS is expected to last at least through the end of the period of slight changes in speed and direction possible. LLWS is also expected at AVP for a brief period tomorrow night beginning around 02z Wednesday. Outlook... Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Thursday and Friday...Flight restrictions likely due to the next round of rain showers starting by Thursday afternoon. Saturday...Possible restrictions from lake effect showers but mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BTL/TAC NEAR TERM...BTL SHORT TERM...BJT LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...BTL