969 FXUS61 KBUF 190606 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 206 AM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure building into the region will help to decrease cloud cover through the morning, with warmer and drier weather returning today and Wednesday. A cold front will bring widespread showers Thursday, to be followed by cooler weather for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Earlier lake clouds have become dislodged from the lakeshore as a surface high pressure ridges northeast into our region from the Ohio Valley. This is resulting in drier weather this morning and today. The increasing subsidence and drier air associated with this feature will bring clearing skies to areas where lake clouds have been present the past few days. With the clearing skies and light winds, river valley fog in the Southern Tier is starting to form early this morning, and will likely continue to expand through the morning. Surface high pressure will move from the Ohio Valley to the Carolina coast today into Wednesday. This will provide a period of fair, dry weather along with a warming trend as temperatures rebound back into the 60s with even a few lower 70s possible. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Closed mid level circulation ejecting across the central CONUS still forecast to move into the Great Lakes Wednesday night and Thursday. Chances for showers will start to increase late Wednesday night and especially Thursday into Thursday evening, initially tied to a lead corridor of higher moisture followed by a combination of cold frontal dynamics and increasing height falls, then potentially some lake enhancement on a cooling westerly flow. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A cold front will exit the region to the east Friday morning. A northerly flow will move into the region as showers continue through the day. An upper level trough will move overhead and cold air aloft will move into the region. Temperatures at 850mb will fall below 0C and lake induced instability will produce clouds and rain downwind of the lakes. Multiple shortwave troughs and fronts will move through the region through the weekend. The low-level wind will be changing, making it hard to pinpoint lake band placement. A combination of lake effect showers and synoptically forced showers are possible through weekend. A second cold front may move across the region Sunday-Monday bringing even colder temperatures to the region. Showers will continue with the potential for some wet snowflakes across the higher terrain. Cool temperatures next weekend with highs in the low to mid 50s. Low temperatures will average the mid to upper 30s at the higher terrain to the low to mid 40s across the Lake Plains. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mainly VFR flight conditions will prevail this morning as surface high pressure moves into our region. Light winds and clearing skies will bring the possibility for some river valley fog (IFR) across the Southern Tier early this morning, including nearing the KJHW terminal. Aside from some lingering valley fog this morning, high pressure centered over the Ohio valley will provide VFR flight conditions right through this evening. Of note, west winds will pick up from midday on, with gusts of 20-30 knots. Outlook... Wednesday...VFR. Thursday...Restrictions likely with periods of showers. Friday and Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers. && .MARINE... West to northwest winds will maintain small craft conditions on southern Lake Ontario this morning. Surface high pressure will slide from the Ohio Valley to near the Carolina coast today through Wednesday. A fairly tight pressure gradient will develop across both Lakes today on the northern periphery of this surface high bringing a moderate westerly flow lasting into Wednesday, likely continuing small craft conditions on Lake Ontario through mid-week. This has also necessitated the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory for Lake Erie from this afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for LOZ043-044. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for LOZ042. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM/TMA NEAR TERM...JM/SW/TMA SHORT TERM...TMA LONG TERM...HSK AVIATION...JM/SW MARINE...JM/TMA